Newcastle vs Aston Villa Head to Head, Prediction
St. James' Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.16
Draw
3.92
Away Win
3.36
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge recent form and attack, Aston Villa edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 27 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 45.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.6% → 45.6%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.1%
±0.0 pts
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.3% → 29.3%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Aston Villa
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 27 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleAston Villa
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
16th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
0.80
1.80
Goals/Game
0.80
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.80
10.2
Shots/Game
9.6
3.6
Shots on Target
2.4
Home vs Away Context
Newcastle at home (3 matches) vs Aston Villa away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aston Villa
Away form
D
W
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
2
Draws
1
Aston Villa Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Newcastle0 – 2Aston Villa
Aston Villa0 – 0Newcastle
Aston Villa4 – 1Newcastle
Newcastle3 – 0Aston Villa
Aston Villa1 – 3Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Aston Villa
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 58.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 60.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Newcastle's 10 matches and 5 of Aston Villa's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?