Newcastle vs Bournemouth Head to Head, Prediction
St. James' Park
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.15
Draw
3.75
Away Win
3.31
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Newcastle
Bournemouth
9'
⚽ M. Tavernier
Anthony Elanga 🟨
28'
35'
⚽ (OG) M. Thiaw
H. Barnes (L. Hall) ⚽
37'
Yoane Wissa 🟨
57'
66'
🟨 Justin Kluivert
87'
🟨 Adrien Truffert
J. Ramsey ⚽
88'
90+4'
🟨 Adam Smith
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
8
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
3
19
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Hornicek
A. Dedic
M. Thiaw
S. Botman
L. Hall
Nico
L. Miley
A. Elanga
J. Willock
H. Barnes
Y. Wissa
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
D. Petrovic
A. Smith
J. Hill
A. Silva
A. Truffert
T. Adams
A. Scott
Rayan
J. Kluivert
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Player Ratings ?
Newcastle
Lukáš HorníčekG7.9
Harvey BarnesM7.7
Jacob RamseyM7.3
Bournemouth
Marcus TavernierM8.2
Tyler AdamsM7.2
António SilvaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge attack, Bournemouth edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Bournemouth
Bournemouth's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Bournemouth win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Newcastle remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 44.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
42.0% → 44.9%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.9% → 26.0%
+0.1 pts
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 29.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
32.1% → 29.1%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Bournemouth
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleBournemouth
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
14th
2
Games Played
2
2.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
10.2
Shots/Game
13.6
3.6
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Newcastle at home (3 matches) vs Bournemouth away (2 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bournemouth
Away form
W
W
W
D
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
0
Draws
3
Bournemouth Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Newcastle1 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth0 – 0Newcastle
Newcastle1 – 4Bournemouth
Bournemouth1 – 1Newcastle
Newcastle2 – 2Bournemouth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Bournemouth
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 10 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 60.0%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 62.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
8 of Newcastle's 10 matches and 8 of Bournemouth's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?