Sunderland vs Brighton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadium of Light
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.97
Draw
3.55
Away Win
2.41
Match Prediction
Data favours
Brighton
Brighton rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Brighton a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Brighton have recorded just one win and a single draw in their last five away fixtures, while Sunderland have secured two victories from their most recent five home outings. Sunderland have found the net in two of their last five home matches and kept a clean sheet on two occasions during that same span. Brighton rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Brighton won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 14 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Sunderland's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. Over the 27-day comparison window, Sunderland's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Brighton's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Brighton a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Sunderland
No current absences reported
Brighton
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Sunderland
Sunderland's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sunderland win as more likely than it did 27 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Brighton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sunderland win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.8% → 32.6%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 27.7%
−0.1 pts
Brighton win
Latest market chance 39.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.4% → 39.7%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sunderland
Draw
Brighton
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 27 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SunderlandBrighton
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
3rd
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
2.00
1.20
Goals/Game
3.20
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.2
Shots/Game
19.0
5.0
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Sunderland at home (2 matches) vs Brighton away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.50
0.50
Goals/Game
4.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sunderland
Home form
L
D
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brighton
Away form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sunderland Wins
1
Draws
1
Brighton Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.5
Sunderland0 – 1Brighton
Brighton0 – 0Sunderland
Brighton2 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland2 – 0Brighton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sunderlandvs
Brighton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.7%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 57.4%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Sunderland's 10 matches and 5 of Brighton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?