Alverca vs Sp Braga Head to Head | Primeira Liga

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 2

Match Events

Alverca

Sp Braga

Francisco Chiquinho ⚽ (P)

27'

40'

🟨 Adrian Bajrami

Ian Luccas 🟨

45+3'

50'

⚽ Pau Victor (Demir Ege Tıknaz)

57'

⚽ Pau Victor

Francisco Chiquinho 🟨

65'

66'

🟨 Pau Victor

Francisco Chiquinho 🟨

66'

87'

🟨 Gabriel Martínez Aguilera

90+1'

🟨 Gustaf Lagerbielke

Match Statistics

32%

Ball Possession

68%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Alverca (3-4-3)

Matheus Mendes

S. Baseya

S. Gomez

Y. Bojang

T. Tamarit

Ian Luccas

Rayan Lucas

I. James

Chiquinho

V. Semedo

Figueiredo

Sp Braga (3-4-3)

Bernardo

G. Lagerbielke

Vitor Carvalho

A. Bajrami

V. Gomez

D. E. Tiknaz

J. Moutinho

Travassos

M. Dorgeles

P. Victor

D. Rodrigues

Player Ratings

Alverca

Matheus MendesG6.7

S. BaseyaD6.6

ChiquinhoF6.6

Sp Braga

Pau VictorF8.7

E. TıknazM7.7

Vitor CarvalhoD7.1

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Data favours

Sp Braga

Sp Braga rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Braga a slight edge.

Leads 4 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Sp Braga stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Sp Braga slightly stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Sp Braga slightly stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Sp Braga stronger

HomeAway

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift towards Sp Braga

Sp Braga's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Braga win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Alverca win

Latest market chance 20.2%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

22.1% → 20.2%

−1.9 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 26.6%

Steady

Market view unchanged

26.8% → 26.6%

−0.2 pts

Sp Braga win

Latest market chance 53.2%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

51.1% → 53.2%

+2.1 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

4 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Alverca

Draw

Sp Braga

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Alverca

Sp Braga

Season Profile

This season

16th

League Position

9th

Games Played

0.50

Points/Game

2.00

1.00

Goals/Game

1.50

2.00

Conceded/Game

1.00

11.9

Shots/Game

12.5

4.0

Shots on Target

4.3

Home vs Away Context

Alverca at home (5 matches) vs Sp Braga away (4 matches)

1.60

Points/Game

1.25

1.20

Goals/Game

1.25

1.00

Conceded/Game

1.25

40%

Win Rate

25%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Alverca

Home form

Unbeaten in last 5 at home

3 of these matches from last season.

1.8

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Sp Braga

Away form

2W 2D 1L in last 5 away

4 of these matches from last season.

1.4

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Alverca Wins

Draws

Sp Braga Wins

Avg Goals

3.8

2026-01-252025-2026

Sp Braga5 – 0Alverca

2025-08-172025-2026

Alverca0 – 3Sp Braga

2004-03-012003-2004

Sp Braga0 – 0Alverca

2003-10-062003-2004

Alverca1 – 2Sp Braga

2002-05-052001-2002

Sp Braga5 – 3Alverca

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Alverca

Sp Braga

Recent Scoring Profile

1.00

Goals scored / game

1.40

Goals conceded / game

1.10

4/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

6/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

4/10

Failed to Score

0/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

69.7%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

46.3%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

26.6%

BTTSBoth teams score

48.6%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 48.4%→Latest 46.3%−2.1 pts

Notable move away from 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 51.1%→Latest 48.6%−2.5 pts

Notable move away from both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.

6 of Alverca's 10 matches and 8 of Sp Braga's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Alverca vs Sp Braga Head to Head, Prediction