Arouca vs Santa Clara Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.65
Draw
3.04
Away Win
3.07
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Arouca
Santa Clara
22'
⚽ Gonçalo Paciência (José Tavares)
33'
🟨 Emanuel Moreira
36'
⚽ José Tavares (Pedro Pacheco)
Iván Barbero (Näis Djouahra) ⚽
46'
Näis Djouahra 🟨
54'
Vasco César Freire de Seabra 🟨
64'
65'
🟨 Tiago Ribeiro
Espen van Ee 🟨
65'
72'
🟨 Pedro Ferreira
84'
🟨 Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro
85'
🟥 Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro
Gabrijel Rukavina 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
10
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Arouca (4-2-3-1)
I. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
Javi Sánchez
José Fontán
O. Lebedenko
E. van Ee
T. Fukui
A. Trezza
Pablo Gozálbez
N. Djouahra
Barbero
Santa Clara (4-3-3)
Lucas França
Lucas Soares
Pedro Pacheco
Emanuel Fernandes
Guilherme Romão
José Luís Rocha Tavares
Pedro Ferreira
Tiago Ribeiro
Vinícius Lopes
Gonçalo Paciência
Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
Player Ratings ?
Arouca
BarberoF7.1
N. DjouahraM7.0
Tiago EsgaioD6.9
Santa Clara
Gonçalo PaciênciaF8.2
José Luís Rocha TavaresM8.0
Pedro PachecoD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Arouca edge attack, Santa Clara edge defence, recent form and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Santa Clara stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santa Clara have managed just one win from their last five away outings, while Arouca remain unbeaten at home in that same span with four victories. The hosts have found the net in all of their last five matches at this venue, though they have kept just two clean sheets in that identical period. Arouca rate stronger on attack, while Santa Clara rate stronger on defence, while form and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Arouca's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points, while Santa Clara's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
55%
Arouca yellow cards after 75'
13
Arouca points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Santa Clara
Santa Clara's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Santa Clara win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Arouca remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arouca win
Latest market chance 36.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.0% → 36.9%
+1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.0% → 31.0%
+1.0 pts
Santa Clara win
Latest market chance 32.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
35.0% → 32.1%
−2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arouca
Draw
Santa Clara
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AroucaSanta Clara
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
4th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
2.20
1.40
Goals/Game
1.80
0.60
Conceded/Game
0.60
10.9
Shots/Game
13.1
3.9
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Arouca at home (3 matches) vs Santa Clara away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.33
2.33
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.67
67%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arouca
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santa Clara
Away form
D
D
L
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arouca Wins
2
Draws
2
Santa Clara Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
Arouca2 – 2Santa Clara
Santa Clara0 – 0Arouca
Santa Clara2 – 0Arouca
Arouca1 – 0Santa Clara
Arouca1 – 0Santa Clara
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aroucavs
Santa Clara
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.90
Goals conceded / game
0.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 41.6%→Latest 42.2%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.8%→Latest 49.9%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Arouca's 10 matches and 5 of Santa Clara's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?