Casa Pia vs Porto Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
11.63
Draw
6.03
Away Win
1.25
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Casa Pia
Porto
Henrique Araújo ⚽ (P)
43'
45'
🟨 Jakub Kiwior
45+3'
⚽ André Silva (Pablo Rosario)
Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira 🟨
53'
Andre Geraldes 🟨
54'
60'
⚽ Jakub Kiwior (Gabri Veiga)
66'
⚽ Borja Sainz
David Sousa 🟨
87'
Ivan Mandic 🟨
90'
90+1'
⚽ (P) Santiago Giménez
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
15
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
10
13
Fouls
10
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
Ivan Mandić
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
Silvi
L. Ofori
M. El Boukammiri
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
B. Pauwels
Henrique Araújo
Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa
Alberto Baio
J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Francisco Moura
Hwang In-Beom
P. Rosario
Gabri Veiga
William
André Silva
Pepê Aquino
Player Ratings ?
Casa Pia
Henrique AraújoF6.8
CassianoF6.5
SilviM6.5
Porto
André SilvaF8.0
S. GiménezF7.7
Borja SainzF7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Porto
Porto rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Porto a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Porto arrive at this Primeira Liga fixture with an impressive away record, securing four victories from their last five outings on the road, while Casa Pia have struggled significantly at home during that same recent period, managing only a solitary draw against four defeats in their corresponding sample. At the home venue, Casa Pia have found scoring difficult recently, registering goals in just one of their last five matches, a trend compounded by a complete lack of clean sheets across that identical sample size. Porto rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Casa Pia won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 2 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Porto's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Porto.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Porto unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Casa Pia points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Porto
Porto's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Porto win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 7.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
8.0% → 7.8%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
16.9% → 16.0%
−0.9 pts
Porto win
Latest market chance 76.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
75.1% → 76.1%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Casa Pia
Draw
Porto
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Casa PiaPorto

Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
0.20
Points/Game
3.00
0.00
Goals/Game
2.20
2.20
Conceded/Game
0.20
10.3
Shots/Game
16.0
2.7
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Casa Pia at home (4 matches) vs Porto away (4 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
3.00
0.50
Goals/Game
3.25
4.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
0%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Casa Pia
Home form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Porto
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Casa Pia Wins
1
Draws
0
Porto Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
Casa Pia2 – 1Porto
Porto4 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 1Porto
Porto2 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia1 – 2Porto
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Casa Piavs
Porto

Recent Scoring Profile
0.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.50
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
7/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 54.1%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 39.3%→Latest 39.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Casa Pia's 10 matches and 5 of Porto's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?