Estoril vs Arouca Head to Head, Prediction
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Mon 07 Sep 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.35
Draw
3.42
Away Win
3.02
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Estoril
Arouca
Antef Tsoungui 🟨
30'
Francisco Reis Ferreira 🟨
45'
Jordan Arnolin 🟨
71'
João Carvalho 🟨
72'
86'
🟨 Brian Mansilla
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
18
Total Shots
12
8
Shots on Goal
2
8
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
9
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Estoril (4-2-3-1)
Joel Robles
Ricard Sánchez
Ferro
Isma Sierra
Fernando Medrano
A. Tsoungui
J. Holsgrove
André Lacximicant
João Carvalho
Fabrício Garcia
Y. Begraoui
Arouca (4-2-3-1)
I. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
B. Popović
José Fontán
O. Lebedenko
E. van Ee
T. Fukui
A. Trezza
Pablo Gozálbez
N. Djouahra
Barbero
Player Ratings ?
Estoril
Isma SierraD7.4
Fernando MedranoD7.3
J. HolsgroveM7.2
Arouca
I. de ArruabarrenaG8.8
B. PopovićD7.3
José FontánD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arouca
Arouca rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Arouca an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Estoril
Estoril's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Estoril win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Estoril win
Latest market chance 40.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
45.7% → 40.9%
−4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.7%
+0.5 pts
Arouca win
Latest market chance 31.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.0% → 31.4%
+4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Estoril
Draw
Arouca
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EstorilArouca
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
5th
4
Games Played
4
0.25
Points/Game
2.25
0.50
Goals/Game
1.75
1.75
Conceded/Game
0.75
12.7
Shots/Game
10.9
4.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Estoril at home (4 matches) vs Arouca away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.20
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.20
0%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Estoril
Home form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arouca
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Estoril Wins
2
Draws
1
Arouca Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.4
Arouca3 – 2Estoril
Estoril4 – 3Arouca
Arouca1 – 1Estoril
Estoril4 – 1Arouca
Estoril1 – 2Arouca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Estorilvs
Arouca
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.00
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 9 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.7%→Latest 51.2%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 56.0%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Estoril's 10 matches and 6 of Arouca's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?