Estrela vs Sp Braga Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Thu 10 Sep 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.34
Draw
3.89
Away Win
1.67
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Estrela
Sp Braga
5'
⚽ Gabriel Martínez Aguilera (Pau Victor)
Stefan Lekovic 🟨
27'
Ianis Stoica (Eddy Doué) ⚽
45'
Ianis Stoica (Abraham Marcus) ⚽
56'
77'
🟨 João Moutinho
Luan Patrick 🟨
85'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
9
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
9
12
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
S. Leković
Rafa Soares
Eddy Doue
Santiago Serra
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Sp Braga (3-4-3)
Bernardo Fontes
G. Lagerbielke
Vitor Carvalho
Sergio Barcia
Víctor Gómez
E. Tıknaz
João Moutinho
Gabri Martínez
M. Dorgeles
Pau Victor
Fran Navarro
Player Ratings ?
Estrela
I. StoicaM8.8
A. MarcusM7.6
Eddy DoueM7.0
Sp Braga
Gabri MartínezM7.2
Bernardo FontesG7.0
J. WindF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sp Braga edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Braga arrives with an encouraging away record of two wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Estrela have struggled at home with no victories in three draws and two defeats over the same span. Estrela have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Sp Braga rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 16 May 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 3-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Sp Braga
Sp Braga's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Braga win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Estrela win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
20.2% → 18.4%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.1% → 25.1%
−1.0 pts
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 56.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
53.7% → 56.5%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Estrela
Draw
Sp Braga
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EstrelaSp Braga
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
6th
4
Games Played
3
1.50
Points/Game
2.33
2.25
Goals/Game
1.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.1
Shots/Game
12.5
4.6
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Estrela at home (4 matches) vs Sp Braga away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
1.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.25
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Estrela
Home form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Braga
Away form
W
L
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Estrela Wins
0
Draws
3
Sp Braga Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Sp Braga2 – 2Estrela
Estrela3 – 3Sp Braga
Estrela0 – 1Sp Braga
Sp Braga1 – 1Estrela
Sp Braga3 – 0Estrela
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Estrelavs
Sp Braga
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 48.3%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 49.0%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Estrela's 10 matches and 7 of Sp Braga's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?