Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Head to Head, Prediction
Sun 06 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.51
Draw
4.10
Away Win
6.68
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
62'
🟨 Gustavo Silva
62'
🟨 Ivan Mandic
66'
🟨 Tiago Miguel Carvalho Margarido
72'
🟨 João Pedro
86'
🟨 Balieiro Thiago
Match Statistics ?
–
Ball Possession
26%
–
Total Shots
7
–
Shots on Goal
3
–
Corner Kicks
4
–
Fouls
6
–
Yellow Cards
2
–
Red Cards
0
–
Offsides
0
–
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
A. Gomes
A. Geraldes
Kaly
D. Sousa
P. Rosas
S. Clua
L. Ofori
K. Prieto
J. Rego
B. Pauwels
A. Jatta
Player Ratings ?
Casa Pia
Ivan MandićG8.0
Pedro RosasD7.0
KalyD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Guimaraes
Guimaraes rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Casa Pia edge head-to-head, giving Guimaraes a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Casa Pia stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Guimaraes
Guimaraes's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Guimaraes win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Guimaraes win
Latest market chance 61.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
59.0% → 61.9%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.7% → 23.9%
−0.8 pts
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 14.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.3% → 14.2%
−2.1 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GuimaraesCasa Pia
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
18th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
0.00
0.75
Goals/Game
0.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.75
19.1
Shots/Game
10.3
4.7
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Guimaraes at home (4 matches) vs Casa Pia away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.50
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Guimaraes
Home form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Casa Pia
Away form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Guimaraes Wins
1
Draws
2
Casa Pia Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.2
Guimaraes0 – 1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 0Guimaraes
Guimaraes1 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia1 – 1Guimaraes
Guimaraes0 – 2Casa Pia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Guimaraesvs
Casa Pia
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
0.30
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
4/10
Failed to Score
7/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 47.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 45.2%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Guimaraes's 10 matches and 6 of Casa Pia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?