Guimaraes vs Moreirense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.50
Draw
4.34
Away Win
7.06
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Guimaraes
Moreirense
52'
⚽ Tiago Andrade (Leonardo Vonić)
90+6'
⚽ Toni Borevković (Miguel Nogueira)
Match Statistics ?
–
Ball Possession
34%
–
Total Shots
7
–
Shots on Goal
3
–
Corner Kicks
0
–
Fouls
13
–
Yellow Cards
0
–
Red Cards
0
–
Offsides
0
–
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Maracás
Kiko
N. John
Guilherme Liberato
Kiko Bondoso
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade
L. Vonić
Player Ratings ?
Moreirense
T. BorevkovićD7.7
BeniM7.1
Thiago BalieiroD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Guimaraes edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Moreirense edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Moreirense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Guimaraes have secured two wins and a draw from their last five home outings, whereas Moreirense have managed just a solitary victory in four defeats during their recent away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in two of their last five matches at home while also keeping three clean sheets within that same recent sample. Moreirense rate stronger on form, while Guimaraes rate stronger on attack, defence and head-to-head. Guimaraes won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 30 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Guimaraes's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Moreirense's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Moreirense points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Guimaraes
Guimaraes's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Guimaraes win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Guimaraes win
Latest market chance 63.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
60.0% → 63.5%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.6% → 22.6%
−2.0 pts
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 13.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
15.4% → 13.8%
−1.6 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GuimaraesMoreirense
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
10th
7
Games Played
7
0.57
Points/Game
1.43
0.71
Goals/Game
1.43
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.00
19.1
Shots/Game
7.3
4.7
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Guimaraes at home (4 matches) vs Moreirense away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.75
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.75
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Guimaraes
Home form
W
L
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Moreirense
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Guimaraes Wins
3
Draws
1
Moreirense Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.8
Guimaraes1 – 0Moreirense
Moreirense2 – 0Guimaraes
Moreirense2 – 2Guimaraes
Guimaraes1 – 0Moreirense
Guimaraes1 – 0Moreirense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Guimaraesvs
Moreirense
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 49.6%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.7%→Latest 46.2%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Guimaraes's 10 matches and 3 of Moreirense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?