Maritimo vs Porto Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
7.34
Draw
4.29
Away Win
1.29
Match Prediction
Data favours
Porto
Porto rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Porto a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Porto arrive for this Primeira Liga fixture with an impressive away record, having secured four victories from their last five outings on the road, while Maritimo have recorded two wins and two draws in their corresponding home sample over the same period. Porto's recent away form stands out significantly compared to Maritimo's more mixed defensive displays at home. Maritimo have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, though they have also kept two clean sheets during that same span. This combination suggests a side capable of both scoring regularly and maintaining defensive solidity when playing on their own turf. Porto rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Porto won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 1 February 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Maritimo's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Maritimo's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Porto's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Porto a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Porto unbeaten run
12
Porto points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Maritimo
No current absences reported
Porto
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Porto
Porto's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Porto win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Maritimo win
Latest market chance 10.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
11.0% → 10.2%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.3% → 18.6%
−0.7 pts
Porto win
Latest market chance 71.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
69.7% → 71.2%
+1.5 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MaritimoPorto

Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
1st
9
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
3.00
1.11
Goals/Game
2.75
1.78
Conceded/Game
0.50
10.4
Shots/Game
16.0
3.1
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Maritimo at home (3 matches) vs Porto away (4 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
3.25
1.67
Conceded/Game
0.50
33%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Maritimo
Home form
D
W
W
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Porto
Away form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Maritimo Wins
0
Draws
1
Porto Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.2
Maritimo0 – 2Porto
Porto5 – 1Maritimo
Porto2 – 1Maritimo
Maritimo1 – 1Porto
Maritimo1 – 2Porto
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Maritimovs
Porto

Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.90
Goals conceded / game
0.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.4%→Latest 53.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.1%→Latest 43.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Maritimo's 10 matches and 2 of Porto's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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