Moreirense vs Maritimo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Mon 14 Sep 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.55
Draw
3.23
Away Win
2.97
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Moreirense
Maritimo
8'
🟨 Rodri Andrade
Kiko Bondoso 🟨
11'
Manuel Mendonça (Tiago Andrade) ⚽
17'
Leonardo Vonić (Kiko Bondoso) ⚽
28'
59'
🟨 Maxime Dominguez
79'
⚽ Romain Correia
Alexandre Parsemain ⚽ (P)
86'
90+3'
🟨 Israel Isaac Ayuma
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
11
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Maracás
Kiko
N. John
M. Stjepanović
Kiko Bondoso
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade
L. Vonić
Maritimo (4-3-3)
Alfonso Pastor
Igor Julião
Rafael Fernandes
Romain Correia
Paulo Henrique
Raphael Guzzo
V. Danilović
Rodrigo Andrade
B. Limbombe
Adrián Butzke
Martín Tejón
Player Ratings ?
Moreirense
L. VonićF7.7
A. Duville-ParsemainF7.6
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM7.2
Maritimo
Romain CorreiaD7.8
B. LimbombeF6.8
Raphael GuzzoM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Moreirense edge head-to-head, Maritimo edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Maritimo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Maritimo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Moreirense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Maritimo have struggled away from home recently, managing just a solitary victory in their last five outings across seasons, whereas Moreirense have been more consistent at this venue with two wins and two draws from their corresponding sample. At home, Moreirense have found the net in three of their last five matches while also keeping a clean sheet on two occasions during that same period. Maritimo rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Moreirense hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Maritimo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 6 March 2022, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Moreirense's implied win probability has risen by 3.9 percentage points, while Maritimo's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Maritimo
Maritimo's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Maritimo win as less likely than it did 7 days ago. Moreirense remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 37.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
33.7% → 37.6%
+3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 30.1%
+0.5 pts
Maritimo win
Latest market chance 32.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.6% → 32.3%
−4.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Moreirense
Draw
Maritimo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MoreirenseMaritimo
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
11th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
1.17
1.17
Goals/Game
1.17
2.17
Conceded/Game
1.83
7.3
Shots/Game
10.4
2.9
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Moreirense at home (4 matches) vs Maritimo away (6 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.83
2.00
Goals/Game
1.17
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.83
50%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Moreirense
Home form
W
D
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Maritimo
Away form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Moreirense Wins
3
Draws
1
Maritimo Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Moreirense3 – 1Maritimo
Moreirense0 – 1Maritimo
Maritimo0 – 0Moreirense
Maritimo0 – 2Moreirense
Moreirense2 – 1Maritimo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Moreirensevs
Maritimo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 41.7%→Latest 41.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 48.6%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Moreirense's 10 matches and 4 of Maritimo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?