Nacional vs Alverca Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.70
Draw
3.23
Away Win
2.79
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Nacional
Alverca
18'
🟨 Yaya Bojang
34'
⚽ Francisco Chissumba (Francisco Chiquinho)
36'
⚽ Dawda Camara Sankharé (Diogo Spencer)
42'
⚽ Dawda Camara Sankharé (Diogo Spencer)
48'
🟨 Dawda Camara Sankharé
73'
🟨 Diogo Spencer
Matchoi Djaló ⚽
81'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
13
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
0
7
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Nacional (4-3-3)
Renato Bellucci
Wesley Gasolina
Francisco Gonçalves
Zé Vitor
W. Kokolo
Daniel Júnior
Matheus Dias
Miguel Baeza
S. Gavriel
Pablo Ruan
M. Jensen
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
Y. Bojang
Sergi Gómez
I. James
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
D. Gui
Ian Luccas
Francisco Chissumba
Chiquinho
D. Camara
Figueiredo
Player Ratings ?
Nacional
Zé VitorD7.2
W. KokoloD7.2
Matchoi DjalóF6.9
Alverca
D. CamaraF8.6
Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM8.3
Francisco ChissumbaM8.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Nacional
Nacional rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Nacional a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nacional stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nacional stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nacional slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Alverca arrive at this Primeira Liga fixture with a concerning away record, having suffered five straight defeats across their last five outings, while Nacional have secured three wins from five in comparable home fixtures. Nacional have found the net in each of their last five home games yet have also conceded frequently, managing just three clean sheets during that same span. Nacional rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. Nacional won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Alverca's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Nacional a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/4
One-goal H2H results
0
Alverca points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nacional win
Latest market chance 35.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.4% → 35.7%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 29.3%
+0.4 pts
Alverca win
Latest market chance 35.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
34.7% → 35.0%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nacional
Draw
Alverca
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NacionalAlverca
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
16th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
0.40
1.20
Goals/Game
1.00
1.60
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.7
Shots/Game
11.9
2.9
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Nacional at home (6 matches) vs Alverca away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.75
2.83
Conceded/Game
1.75
17%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nacional
Home form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Alverca
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nacional Wins
2
Draws
0
Alverca Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Nacional1 – 0Alverca
Alverca1 – 0Nacional
Alverca2 – 1Nacional
Nacional3 – 0Alverca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nacionalvs
Alverca
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.0%→Latest 47.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 52.7%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Nacional's 10 matches and 5 of Alverca's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?