Porto vs Benfica Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio do Dragão
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.81
Draw
3.42
Away Win
2.57
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Porto
Benfica
Gabri Veiga 🟨
5'
25'
🟨 Clément Lenglet
Gabri Veiga (Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa) ⚽
31'
34'
🟨 Gianluca Prestianni
35'
🟥 Clément Lenglet
51'
⚽ Alexander Bah (Gianluca Prestianni)
Victor Froholdt (André Silva) ⚽
54'
Hwang In-Beom (André Silva) ⚽
60'
Hwang In-Beom 🟨
80'
Oskar Pietuszewski 🟨
90+2'
90+3'
🟨 Tomás Araújo
90+3'
🟨 Alexander Bah
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
20
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa
Alberto Baio
J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Martim Fernandes
Victor Mow Froholdt
P. Rosario
Gabri Veiga
William
André Silva
Pepê Aquino
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
Samuel Soares
A. Bah
Tomás Araújo
C. Lenglet
S. Dahl
F. Aursnes
João Palhinha
Rafa
H. Sudakov
G. Prestianni
V. Pavlidis
Player Ratings ?
Porto
André SilvaF8.1
Hwang In-BeomM8.0
Victor Mow FroholdtM7.8
Benfica
Tomás AraújoD6.8
A. BahD6.7
V. PavlidisF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Porto edge recent form and defence, Benfica edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Porto slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Porto slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Porto have secured five wins from their last five home outings, while Benfica remain unbeaten in four of their five away matches during this period. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five home games yet managed only four clean sheets in that same run. Porto hold a slight advantage in form and defence, while Benfica rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 8 March 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Porto's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Benfica's implied win probability has fallen by 0.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Porto unbeaten run
15
Porto points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Porto
Porto's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Porto win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Benfica remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Porto win
Latest market chance 32.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.4% → 32.8%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.3% → 28.8%
+1.5 pts
Benfica win
Latest market chance 38.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.4% → 38.4%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Porto
Draw
Benfica
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PortoBenfica
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
6
3.00
Points/Game
2.67
2.71
Goals/Game
3.50
0.43
Conceded/Game
0.67
16.0
Shots/Game
19.1
6.3
Shots on Target
7.1
Home vs Away Context
Porto at home (4 matches) vs Benfica away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
2.25
2.25
Goals/Game
3.75
0.50
Conceded/Game
0.75
100%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Porto
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Benfica
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
3.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Porto Wins
1
Draws
2
Benfica Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Benfica2 – 2Porto
Porto0 – 0Benfica
Porto1 – 4Benfica
Benfica4 – 1Porto
Porto5 – 0Benfica
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Portovs
Benfica
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
3.20
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
10/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.2%→Latest 49.2%−4.0 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.3%→Latest 55.3%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Porto's 10 matches and 4 of Benfica's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?