Rio Ave vs Estrela Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mon 14 Sep 2026 · 18:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.65
Draw
3.33
Away Win
2.77
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 3
Match Events ?
Rio Ave
Estrela
21'
⚽ Ianis Stoica (Leandro Antonetti)
26'
🟨 Max Scholze
Francisco Petrasso 🟨
44'
Francisco Petrasso (Diogo Bezerra) ⚽
45+3'
53'
⚽ Abraham Marcus (Max Scholze)
Roland Galcik (Diogo Bezerra) ⚽
56'
58'
🟨 Eddy Doué
61'
⚽ Abraham Marcus (Ianis Stoica)
76'
🟨 Stefan Lekovic
Jalen Blesa ⚽ (P)
78'
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
11
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
5
16
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Rio Ave (4-2-3-1)
E. van der Gouw
João Tomé
F. Petrasso
S. Garcia
Pedro Amaral
T. Nikitscher
A. Ntoi
S. Clemmensen
M. Patricio
Diogo Bezerra
J. Blesa
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
S. Leković
Rafa Soares
Santiago Serra
Eddy Doue
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Player Ratings ?
Rio Ave
Diogo BezerraM8.2
R. GalčíkF8.0
J. BlesaF7.2
Estrela
A. MarcusM9.1
I. StoicaM8.1
L. AntonettiF7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rio Ave edge head-to-head, Estrela edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Estrela slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Rio Ave stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Estrela have secured just one win from their last five away outings, while Rio Ave remain winless in three of their last five home fixtures. Rio Ave have scored in two of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet in that same span. Estrela rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Rio Ave rate stronger on head-to-head. Rio Ave won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 15 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Estrela's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Rio Ave's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points, while Estrela's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Rio Ave points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Estrela
Estrela's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Estrela win as less likely than it did 7 days ago. Rio Ave remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rio Ave win
Latest market chance 35.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.8% → 35.9%
+2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 29.0%
+0.6 pts
Estrela win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
37.7% → 35.1%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rio Ave
Draw
Estrela
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Rio AveEstrela
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
7th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
1.67
0.83
Goals/Game
2.33
2.33
Conceded/Game
2.00
7.1
Shots/Game
13.1
2.6
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Rio Ave at home (4 matches) vs Estrela away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.50
Goals/Game
2.75
3.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rio Ave
Home form
D
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Estrela
Away form
L
D
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rio Ave Wins
3
Draws
1
Estrela Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Rio Ave3 – 3Estrela
Rio Ave2 – 1Estrela
Estrela1 – 2Rio Ave
Rio Ave2 – 0Estrela
Estrela1 – 0Rio Ave
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rio Avevs
Estrela
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
6/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.4%→Latest 47.6%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 53.7%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Rio Ave's 10 matches and 4 of Estrela's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?