Sp Braga vs Estoril Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mon 14 Sep 2026 · 20:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.44
Draw
4.73
Away Win
7.17
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Sp Braga
Estoril
34'
🟨 Francisco Reis Ferreira
63'
🟥 Francisco Reis Ferreira
Jonas Wind (Jean-Baptiste Gorby) ⚽
83'
85'
🟨 João Carvalho
88'
🟨 Pedro Carvalho
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
20
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Goal
1
4
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Sp Braga (3-4-3)
Bernardo Fontes
A. Barišić
G. Lagerbielke
B. Arrey-Mbi
Víctor Gómez
João Moutinho
E. Tıknaz
Gabri Martínez
Gabriel Silva
J. Milošević
Pau Victor
Estoril (4-2-3-1)
Joel Robles
Ricard Sánchez
Ferro
Isma Sierra
R. Jurišić
J. Holsgrove
M. Robin
Fabrício Garcia
João Carvalho
N. Omerović
Y. Begraoui
Player Ratings ?
Sp Braga
G. LagerbielkeD8.0
J. WindF7.9
J. GorbyM7.3
Estoril
Joel RoblesG7.4
J. HolsgroveM7.2
Isma SierraD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Braga
Sp Braga rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Sp Braga an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Braga slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Estoril have struggled away from home with just two draws and three defeats in their last five outings, whereas Sp Braga remain unbeaten at this venue with two wins and three draws across the same span. Sp Braga have found the net in all five of their home matches while keeping a clean sheet twice during that identical run. Sp Braga rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Sp Braga's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Estoril's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Sp Braga.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Estoril losing run
2
Estoril points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Sp Braga
Sp Braga's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Braga win as more likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 65.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
64.2% → 65.3%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.7% → 21.3%
−0.4 pts
Estoril win
Latest market chance 13.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
14.1% → 13.4%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Braga
Draw
Estoril
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp BragaEstoril
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
6
2.00
Points/Game
0.33
1.40
Goals/Game
0.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
12.5
Shots/Game
12.7
4.3
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Sp Braga at home (3 matches) vs Estoril away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
0.25
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Braga
Home form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Estoril
Away form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Braga Wins
2
Draws
2
Estoril Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Sp Braga1 – 0Estoril
Sp Braga1 – 1Estoril
Estoril1 – 0Sp Braga
Estoril0 – 2Sp Braga
Sp Braga2 – 2Estoril
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Bragavs
Estoril
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 55.1%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 50.2%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Sp Braga's 10 matches and 4 of Estoril's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?