Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 20:15 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.61
Draw
3.47
Away Win
2.06
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Braga have enjoyed an encouraging unbeaten run at home with three wins from their last five outings, while Sp Lisbon remain unbeaten away with two victories and three draws from their last five matches across various seasons. At home, the hosts have scored in all of their last five matches but have kept three clean sheets during that same period. Sp Lisbon rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sp Braga's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Sp Lisbon's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Sp Braga
No current absences reported
Sp Lisbon
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 26.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.6% → 26.8%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.0% → 27.4%
−0.6 pts
Sp Lisbon win
Latest market chance 45.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
43.4% → 45.8%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Braga
Draw
Sp Lisbon
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp BragaSp Lisbon
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
8
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.14
Goals/Game
2.38
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.25
12.5
Shots/Game
13.4
4.3
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Sp Braga at home (3 matches) vs Sp Lisbon away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.67
1.00
Goals/Game
2.33
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Braga
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Lisbon
Away form
D
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Braga Wins
0
Draws
3
Sp Lisbon Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Sp Braga2 – 2Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon1 – 1Sp Braga
Sp Lisbon1 – 1Sp Braga
Sp Braga2 – 4Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon5 – 0Sp Braga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Bragavs
Sp Lisbon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.60
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 48.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 52.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Sp Braga's 10 matches and 2 of Sp Lisbon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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