Sp Lisbon vs Arouca Head to Head | Primeira Liga

Match Report

Full Time

2 – 2

Match Events

Sp Lisbon

Arouca

Gonçalo Inácio (Maximiliano Araujo) ⚽

Luis Suárez (Iván Fresneda) ⚽

17'

36'

🟨 Espen van Ee

44'

🟨 Javi Sánchez

51'

🟨 Jose Fontán

Zeno Debast 🟥

54'

Luis Suárez 🟨

61'

🟨 Pedro Santos

Eduardo Quaresma 🟨

80'

81'

⚽ (P) Jose Fontán

87'

⚽ Dylan Nandín

90+2'

🟨 Brian Mansilla

Maximiliano Araujo 🟨

90+4'

Gonçalo Inácio 🟨

90+8'

Match Statistics

54%

Ball Possession

46%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Sp Lisbon (4-2-3-1)

Rui Silva

Iván Fresneda

Z. Debast

Gonçalo Inácio

M. Araújo

Sergi Altimira

I. Doumbia

Geny Catamo

R. Zalazar

N. Irankunda

L. Suárez

Arouca (4-2-3-1)

I. de Arruabarrena

Tiago Esgaio

Javi Sánchez

José Fontán

O. Lebedenko

E. van Ee

T. Fukui

A. Trezza

Mateo Flores

N. Djouahra

Barbero

Player Ratings

Sp Lisbon

Gonçalo InácioD8.1

L. SuárezF7.8

Iván FresnedaD7.2

Arouca

D. NandínF8.1

T. FukuiM7.2

Pedro SantosM6.9

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Data favours

Sp Lisbon

Sp Lisbon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Lisbon an edge.

Leads 4 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Sp Lisbon stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Sp Lisbon stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Sp Lisbon stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Sp Lisbon stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Sp Lisbon arrive at home with an impressive unbeaten run in their last five outings, while Arouca have managed just two wins from five away matches over the same period. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five home games but have only kept two clean sheets during that identical span. Sp Lisbon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Sp Lisbon won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Arouca's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Sp Lisbon's implied win probability has risen by 4.5 percentage points, while Arouca's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Sp Lisbon.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Sp Lisbon unbeaten run

50%

Arouca yellow cards after 75'

Sp Lisbon points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift towards Sp Lisbon

Sp Lisbon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Sp Lisbon win

Latest market chance 80.4%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

75.9% → 80.4%

+4.5 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 13.3%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

15.7% → 13.3%

−2.4 pts

Arouca win

Latest market chance 6.3%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

8.4% → 6.3%

−2.1 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

6 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Sp Lisbon

Draw

Arouca

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Sp Lisbon

Arouca

Season Profile

This season

3rd

League Position

8th

Games Played

2.33

Points/Game

1.67

2.50

Goals/Game

1.33

1.00

Conceded/Game

0.83

13.4

Shots/Game

10.9

5.9

Shots on Target

3.9

Home vs Away Context

Sp Lisbon at home (5 matches) vs Arouca away (5 matches)

2.20

Points/Game

1.20

2.40

Goals/Game

1.00

1.40

Conceded/Game

1.20

60%

Win Rate

20%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Sp Lisbon

Home form

Won 5 straight at home

2 of these matches from last season.

3.2

Goals scored
per match

0.8

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Arouca

Away form

2W 1D 2L in last 5 away

2 of these matches from last season.

1.0

Goals scored
per match

1.0

Goals conceded
per match

3/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Sp Lisbon Wins

Draws

Arouca Wins

Avg Goals

3.8

2026-01-242025-2026

Arouca1 – 2Sp Lisbon

2025-08-172025-2026

Sp Lisbon6 – 0Arouca

2025-02-152024-2025

Sp Lisbon2 – 2Arouca

2024-09-132024-2025

Arouca0 – 3Sp Lisbon

2024-03-102023-2024

Arouca0 – 3Sp Lisbon

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Sp Lisbon

Arouca

Recent Scoring Profile

2.90

Goals scored / game

1.70

1.00

Goals conceded / game

1.10

8/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

0/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

85.1%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

67.3%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

47.6%

BTTSBoth teams score

49.5%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 67.2%→Latest 67.9%+0.7 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 51.1%→Latest 49.1%−2.0 pts

Notable move away from both teams scoring

An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff

The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.

4 of Sp Lisbon's 10 matches and 4 of Arouca's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Sp Lisbon vs Arouca Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis