Arbroath vs Morton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gayfield Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.81
Draw
3.36
Away Win
4.52
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arbroath
Arbroath rate stronger in recent form and defence; Morton edge attack and head-to-head, giving Arbroath a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Morton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Morton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Morton arrive with a poor away record of just one draw and four defeats in their last five outings, while Arbroath look far more stable at home having remained unbeaten with two wins and three draws across the same span. At home, Arbroath have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that identical period. Arbroath rate stronger on form and defence, while Morton hold a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. Arbroath won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 August 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Morton's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Arbroath a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Morton losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Morton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 53.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
52.9% → 53.0%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.2%
−0.1 pts
Morton win
Latest market chance 20.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.8% → 20.8%
±0.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ArbroathMorton

Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
10th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
0.11
0.67
Goals/Game
0.56
1.44
Conceded/Game
1.89
3.9
Shots/Game
7.4
2.1
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Arbroath at home (4 matches) vs Morton away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.25
1.00
Goals/Game
0.50
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Arbroath
Home form
D
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Morton
Away form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arbroath Wins
1
Draws
2
Morton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Morton1 – 2Arbroath
Morton2 – 1Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 1Morton
Morton1 – 0Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 1Morton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Arbroathvs
Morton

Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
0.60
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
6/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.4%→Latest 45.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.1%→Latest 48.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Arbroath's 10 matches and 1 of Morton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?