Arbroath vs Queens Park Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Gayfield Park
Fri 25 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.40
Away Win
4.57
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Arbroath
Queens Park
A. Winter (R. Molotnikov) ⚽
12'
15'
🟨 M. Ruth
R. Flynn 🟨
26'
R. Molotnikov (J. MacIntyre) ⚽
44'
45'
🟨 R. Lamie
74'
⚽ O. Fisher
89'
🟨 R. McLean
T. Beadling 🟨
90+3'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arbroath
Arbroath rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Arbroath a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Queens Park have found consistency elusive on the road in their last five outings, recording three draws alongside two defeats without a single win away from home. In stark contrast, Arbroath have remained unbeaten at this venue over the same span, securing two victories and three draws to keep their home campaign rolling. The hosts have been involved in scoring action in three of their last five matches at this ground, yet they have also kept a clean sheet on three occasions during that identical period. Arbroath rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Arbroath won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Queens Park's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Arbroath's implied win probability has fallen by 4.1 percentage points, while Queens Park's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Arbroath a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Queens Park losing run
46%
Queens Park yellow cards after 75'
3
Queens Park points from last 5 matches
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Arbroath
Arbroath's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Arbroath win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 51.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
55.9% → 51.8%
−4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.5% → 27.5%
+2.0 pts
Queens Park win
Latest market chance 20.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.7% → 20.7%
+2.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+5.5+2.750−2.75Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arbroath
Draw
Queens Park
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Arbroath
Queens Park
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
0.57
0.57
Goals/Game
0.43
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.57
3.9
Shots/Game
5.4
2.1
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
Arbroath at home (4 matches) vs Queens Park away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.25
1.00
Goals/Game
0.25
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arbroath
Home form
W
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Queens Park
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arbroath Wins
3
Draws
0
Queens Park Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
2026-03-212025-2026
Arbroath1 – 0Queens Park
2026-01-312025-2026
Queens Park2 – 1Arbroath
2025-10-112025-2026
Arbroath4 – 1Queens Park
2025-08-092025-2026
Queens Park1 – 3Arbroath
2024-04-272023-2024
Arbroath0 – 5Queens Park
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Arbroath
vs
Queens Park
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
0.40
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
6/10
Failed to Score
7/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
67.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
42.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
22.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
45.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.7%→Latest 42.0%−3.7 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.9%→Latest 45.4%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Arbroath's 10 matches and 3 of Queens Park's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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