Livingston vs Ayr Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Home of the Set Fare Arena
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.57
Draw
4.22
Away Win
5.49
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Livingston
Ayr
8'
⚽ O. Stirton (R. Taylor)
C. Palmer 🟨
10'
R. Muirhead ⚽ (P)
19'
22'
🟥 R. Taylor
22'
🟨 L. McBeth
36'
⚽ L. McBeth (O. Stirton)
J. Doherty 🟨
45'
E. Danso 🟨
51'
72'
🟨 S. McMann
78'
🟨 K. Shanks
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Livingston
Livingston rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Livingston a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ayr have recorded just one win and a single draw from their last five away outings, while Livingston have secured two victories and a draw in that same span at home. Livingston have scored in three of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Livingston rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Livingston won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 18 April 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Ayr's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Livingston a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Livingston win
Latest market chance 59.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
59.4% → 59.3%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.0% → 22.7%
−0.3 pts
Ayr win
Latest market chance 18.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.6% → 18.1%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Livingston
Draw
Ayr
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LivingstonAyr
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
8th
8
Games Played
8
1.63
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
0.88
0.88
Conceded/Game
1.12
11.7
Shots/Game
5.4
3.6
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Livingston at home (5 matches) vs Ayr away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
1.40
1.40
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
40%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Livingston
Home form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ayr
Away form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Livingston Wins
3
Draws
0
Ayr Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Livingston5 – 0Ayr
Ayr1 – 2Livingston
Livingston0 – 1Ayr
Ayr1 – 2Livingston
Livingston0 – 1Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Livingstonvs
Ayr
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 55.5%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.3%→Latest 52.4%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Livingston's 10 matches and 2 of Ayr's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?