Morton vs Livingston Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cappielow Park
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.98
Draw
4.48
Away Win
1.57
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Morton
Livingston
25'
🟨 R. Muirhead
35'
⚽ L. Polworth
G. Gillespie 🟨
43'
45'
⚽ R. Muirhead (T. Sinclair)
M. O'Halloran (G. Gillespie) ⚽
54'
77'
⚽ E. Danso
88'
⚽ J. Doherty
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Livingston
Livingston rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Livingston a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Livingston have recorded two wins from their last five away outings, while Morton have secured just a single victory in their last five home fixtures. At home, Morton have found the net in three of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Livingston rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Livingston won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 12 April 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Morton's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Morton's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Livingston's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Livingston.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Morton losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Livingston
Livingston's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Livingston win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Morton win
Latest market chance 18.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
17.1% → 18.6%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.4% → 22.0%
+0.6 pts
Livingston win
Latest market chance 59.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
61.5% → 59.4%
−2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Morton
Draw
Livingston
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MortonLivingston
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
0.20
Points/Game
1.20
0.60
Goals/Game
0.80
1.60
Conceded/Game
0.80
7.4
Shots/Game
11.7
2.7
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Morton at home (5 matches) vs Livingston away (4 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.50
0.60
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Morton
Home form
W
D
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Livingston
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Morton Wins
0
Draws
2
Livingston Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Morton1 – 2Livingston
Livingston3 – 2Morton
Morton0 – 0Livingston
Livingston1 – 1Morton
Livingston3 – 2Morton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mortonvs
Livingston
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded / game
0.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
1/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 56.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 53.4%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Morton's 10 matches and 5 of Livingston's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?