Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ochilview Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.97
Draw
3.22
Away Win
4.16
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Stenhousemuir
Arbroath
L. O'Donnell ⚽
34'
62'
🟨 S. Mackie
71'
🟨 B. Paterson
S. Bright 🟨
78'
C. Penman 🟨
86'
M. Gillies 🟨
90+4'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Arbroath edge head-to-head, giving Stenhousemuir an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arbroath slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stenhousemuir have enjoyed a perfect home record with three wins from their last three matches, contrasting sharply with Arbroath's mixed away form which includes just one victory and one draw in their last five outings across seasons. The hosts have found the net in all three of their recent home matches while also managing to keep two clean sheets during that same short run. Stenhousemuir rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Arbroath hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Arbroath won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 12 April 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Stenhousemuir's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Stenhousemuir's implied win probability has risen by 9.2 percentage points, while Arbroath's implied win probability has fallen by 8.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Stenhousemuir.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Stenhousemuir win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stenhousemuir win
Latest market chance 47.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.5% → 47.7%
+9.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.3% → 29.0%
−0.3 pts
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 23.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
32.2% → 23.4%
−8.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stenhousemuir
Draw
Arbroath
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StenhousemuirArbroath
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
7th
6
Games Played
6
2.67
Points/Game
1.33
1.67
Goals/Game
0.67
0.33
Conceded/Game
1.33
7.1
Shots/Game
3.9
3.0
Shots on Target
2.1
Home vs Away Context
Stenhousemuir at home (4 matches) vs Arbroath away (5 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.60
1.75
Goals/Game
0.40
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.20
100%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stenhousemuir
Home form
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
Limited history — only 3 home fixtures on record for Stenhousemuir.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.33
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/3
Scored in
last 3
last 3
2/3
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arbroath
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stenhousemuir Wins
3
Draws
0
Arbroath Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Arbroath4 – 0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir2 – 0Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir2 – 1Arbroath
Arbroath0 – 2Stenhousemuir
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stenhousemuirvs
Arbroath
Recent Scoring Profile
1.67
Goals scored / game
0.60
0.33
Goals conceded / game
1.00
1/6
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
2/6
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/6
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.3%→Latest 41.6%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 46.1%−3.4 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Stenhousemuir have only 6 completed fixtures on record.
4 of Arbroath's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?