Alloa vs East Kilbride Head to Head | Scottish League One

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 2

Match Events

Alloa

East Kilbride

26'

🟨 R. Armstrong

34'

⚽ C. McGuffie

35'

🟨 E. East

57'

🟨 J. Balde

K. Glasgow (S. Scougall) ⚽

58'

60'

🟨 S. Fagan

84'

⚽ C. McKenzie (C. Elliott)

C. O'Donnell 🟨

90'

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Alloa edge defence, East Kilbride edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

East Kilbride slightly stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Alloa stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.

Match Analysis

East Kilbride arrive at this away fixture having recorded just a single draw and two defeats across their last three outings, whereas Alloa have secured two victories from five matches during that same span at home. Alloa have found the net in four of their last five matches at home while keeping a clean sheet on three occasions during that identical run. East Kilbride hold a slight advantage in form, while Alloa rate stronger on defence, while attack is closely matched. The market has remained broadly steady over the 4-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

East Kilbride losing run

East Kilbride points from last 3 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift away from East Kilbride

East Kilbride's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a East Kilbride win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Alloa remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Alloa win

Latest market chance 37.0%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

35.3% → 37.0%

+1.7 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 27.3%

Steady

Market view unchanged

26.8% → 27.3%

+0.5 pts

East Kilbride win

Latest market chance 35.7%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

37.9% → 35.7%

−2.2 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

5 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Alloa

Draw

East Kilbride

5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Alloa

East Kilbride

Season Profile

This season

5th

League Position

4th

Games Played

1.29

Points/Game

1.43

1.00

Goals/Game

1.71

0.57

Conceded/Game

1.57

9.4

Shots/Game

9.4

4.4

Shots on Target

4.5

Home vs Away Context

Alloa at home (4 matches) vs East Kilbride away (5 matches)

1.25

Points/Game

1.40

1.25

Goals/Game

1.20

0.75

Conceded/Game

1.80

25%

Win Rate

40%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Alloa

Home form

2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home

2 of these matches from last season.

1.4

Goals scored
per match

1.0

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

3/5

Clean
sheets

East Kilbride

Away form

Winless in last 3 away

Limited history — only 3 away fixtures on record for East Kilbride.

0.33

Goals scored
per match

2.67

Goals conceded
per match

1/3

Scored in
last 3

0/3

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

No previous meetings on record between Alloa and East Kilbride.

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Alloa

East Kilbride

Recent Scoring Profile

1.00

Goals scored / game

1.71

0.90

Goals conceded / game

1.57

2/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/7

3/10

Both Teams Scored

3/7

4/10

Failed to Score

3/7

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

78.2%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

55.9%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

35.4%

BTTSBoth teams score

60.2%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 52.7%→Latest 55.5%+2.8 pts

Notable move towards 3+ goals

Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 57.2%→Latest 60.2%+3.0 pts

Strong move towards both teams scoring

Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff

The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.

East Kilbride have only 7 completed fixtures on record.

3 of Alloa's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Alloa vs East Kilbride Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis