Alloa vs Hamilton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Recreation Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.52
Draw
4.18
Away Win
1.70
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hamilton
Hamilton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hamilton an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamilton have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and a draw from their last five outings, while Alloa have struggled at home with only one win in that same span. At home, Alloa have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Hamilton rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hamilton won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 August 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Alloa's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison favours Hamilton.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alloa win
Latest market chance 21.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.0% → 21.0%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.1% → 24.1%
±0.0 pts
Hamilton win
Latest market chance 54.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
54.9% → 54.9%
±0.0 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlloaHamilton

Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
2nd
9
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
2.75
1.00
Goals/Game
2.25
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.25
9.4
Shots/Game
11.3
4.4
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
Alloa at home (4 matches) vs Hamilton away (3 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
2.33
1.25
Goals/Game
2.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
0.00
25%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Alloa
Home form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Hamilton
Away form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alloa Wins
2
Draws
0
Hamilton Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.4
Hamilton1 – 0Alloa
Hamilton1 – 0Alloa
Alloa3 – 0Hamilton
Hamilton1 – 0Alloa
Alloa1 – 0Hamilton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alloavs
Hamilton

Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 52.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 52.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Alloa's 10 matches and 2 of Hamilton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?