Hamilton vs Peterhead Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
ZLX Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.40
Draw
4.20
Away Win
7.21
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Hamilton
Peterhead
S. McKinstry 🟨
26'
32'
• M. Megginson (M. Megginson)
T. Gallacher ⚽
52'
62'
⚽ B. Yule
A. Ryan (S. Bradley) ⚽
72'
None 🟨
89'
Starting Lineups
Hamilton
D. Lyness
A. Comrie
K. Smutek
T. Gallacher
S. Hendrie
S. McKinstry
S. Bannigan
K. MacDonald
C. Blues
D. Thomas
A. Ryan
Peterhead
C. Hepburn
D. Strachan
A. Graham
J. Brown
D. Forrest
A. McCarthy
B. Yule
Z. To
C. Dunne
M. Megginson
L. Keir
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hamilton
Hamilton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hamilton a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamilton have secured five wins from their last five home outings, while Peterhead have recorded just one win and three defeats in their away fixtures over the same period. Hamilton have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that same span. Hamilton rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hamilton won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Peterhead's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Hamilton's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Peterhead's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Hamilton.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Hamilton
Hamilton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hamilton win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamilton win
Latest market chance 67.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
70.5% → 67.7%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
18.9% → 19.8%
+0.9 pts
Peterhead win
Latest market chance 12.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
10.6% → 12.5%
+1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamilton
Draw
Peterhead
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamiltonPeterhead
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
8
2.71
Points/Game
0.88
2.29
Goals/Game
0.75
0.14
Conceded/Game
1.75
11.3
Shots/Game
7.9
6.0
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Hamilton at home (5 matches) vs Peterhead away (5 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.80
2.40
Goals/Game
0.80
0.40
Conceded/Game
1.80
100%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hamilton
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Peterhead
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamilton Wins
3
Draws
1
Peterhead Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.8
Hamilton3 – 1Peterhead
Peterhead2 – 3Hamilton
Hamilton3 – 0Peterhead
Peterhead2 – 2Hamilton
Peterhead2 – 1Hamilton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamiltonvs
Peterhead
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
0.70
0.40
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.1%→Latest 55.3%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.7%→Latest 47.3%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Hamilton's 10 matches and 2 of Peterhead's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?