Dumbarton vs Elgin Head to Head, Prediction
Dumbarton Football Stadium
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.81
Draw
3.66
Away Win
1.80
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Dumbarton
Elgin
16'
🟨 J. Murray
M. Doyle 🟨
16'
R. Cleary (S. Honeyman) ⚽
43'
63'
🟨 K. Girvan
A. Omar ⚽
64'
80'
🟨 M. Grant
89'
⚽ J. MacIver (L. Mackay)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Elgin
Elgin rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Elgin an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Elgin
Elgin's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Elgin win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dumbarton win
Latest market chance 24.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
28.9% → 24.4%
−4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 25.0%
−0.9 pts
Elgin win
Latest market chance 50.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
45.3% → 50.6%
+5.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dumbarton
Draw
Elgin
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DumbartonElgin
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
2.20
0.40
Goals/Game
3.40
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
8.4
Shots/Game
11.8
3.5
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Dumbarton at home (5 matches) vs Elgin away (4 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.00
1.60
Goals/Game
2.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.75
80%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dumbarton
Home form
D
W
L
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elgin
Away form
L
D
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dumbarton Wins
0
Draws
4
Elgin Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Elgin1 – 1Dumbarton
Dumbarton2 – 2Elgin
Elgin2 – 0Dumbarton
Dumbarton1 – 1Elgin
Dumbarton2 – 2Elgin
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dumbartonvs
Elgin
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
6/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 55.5%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 57.2%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Dumbarton's 10 matches and 5 of Elgin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?