Dumbarton vs Forfar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Dumbarton Football Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.98
Draw
3.59
Away Win
3.25
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Dumbarton
Forfar
8'
⚽ L. Perrie (A. Arnott)
T. Lang 🟨
27'
29'
🟨 A. Lynas
57'
🟨 J. Wyllie
R. Cleary (M. Doyle) ⚽
67'
O. Hartington ⚽
69'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Forfar edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Forfar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Forfar slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Forfar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Forfar have drawn three and lost two in their last five away outings, while Dumbarton have secured three wins from their last two home matches. Dumbarton have found the net in three of their last five home matches and kept two clean sheets during that same run. Forfar rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Dumbarton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, while Forfar's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Dumbarton losing run
3
Forfar points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Dumbarton
Dumbarton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dumbarton win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dumbarton win
Latest market chance 45.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
40.6% → 45.7%
+5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.7% → 25.5%
−1.2 pts
Forfar win
Latest market chance 28.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
32.6% → 28.8%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dumbarton
Draw
Forfar
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DumbartonForfar
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
6th
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
1.38
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.62
8.4
Shots/Game
8.2
3.5
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Dumbarton at home (5 matches) vs Forfar away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.40
1.60
Goals/Game
0.80
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.40
80%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dumbarton
Home form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Forfar
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dumbarton Wins
2
Draws
1
Forfar Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Dumbarton2 – 2Forfar
Forfar2 – 0Dumbarton
Dumbarton1 – 4Forfar
Forfar2 – 3Dumbarton
Forfar0 – 2Dumbarton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dumbartonvs
Forfar
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 55.3%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 58.1%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Dumbarton's 10 matches and 2 of Forfar's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?