Dumbarton vs Spartans Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Dumbarton Football Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.79
Draw
3.83
Away Win
1.76
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Dumbarton
Spartans
D. Lang (M. Doyle) ⚽
3'
T. Robson 🟨
14'
T. Lang 🟨
35'
45+2'
🟨 C. Russell
54'
🟨 B. Whyte
C. Russell ⚽ (OG)
61'
J. Sowa (D. Craig) ⚽
90+3'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Spartans
Spartans rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Dumbarton edge head-to-head, giving Spartans an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Spartans stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Spartans stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Spartans stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dumbarton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Spartans have secured three victories and a draw from their last five away outings, while Dumbarton have won three of their home matches but suffered two defeats in the same period. Dumbarton have found the net in three of their last five home games yet have kept only one clean sheet during that span. Spartans rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Dumbarton hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Dumbarton won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 7 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Spartans's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Dumbarton's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Spartans's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Spartans.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Spartans
Spartans's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Spartans win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dumbarton win
Latest market chance 23.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
20.6% → 23.1%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.2% → 23.4%
+1.2 pts
Spartans win
Latest market chance 53.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
57.2% → 53.5%
−3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dumbarton
Draw
Spartans
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DumbartonSpartans
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
0.86
Points/Game
1.71
0.71
Goals/Game
2.71
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
8.4
Shots/Game
11.0
3.5
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Dumbarton at home (5 matches) vs Spartans away (4 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.50
1.60
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
80%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dumbarton
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Spartans
Away form
W
D
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dumbarton Wins
3
Draws
0
Spartans Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Dumbarton3 – 0Spartans
Spartans2 – 0Dumbarton
Dumbarton1 – 2Spartans
Spartans1 – 2Dumbarton
Spartans2 – 6Dumbarton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dumbartonvs
Spartans
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
2.40
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
6/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.1%→Latest 61.5%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.8%→Latest 61.4%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Dumbarton's 10 matches and 3 of Spartans's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?