Elgin vs Stranraer Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Borough Briggs
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.03
Draw
3.45
Away Win
3.24
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 5
Match Events ?
Elgin
Stranraer
7'
⚽ S. Mason (Z. Bruce)
13'
⚽ D. McManus (A. Traynor)
34'
🟨 K. Nair
35'
🟨 E. Dunne
L. Booth (J. MacIver) ⚽
36'
45'
⚽ D. McManus (A. Traynor)
46'
⚽ S. Mason (F. Ecrepont)
M. Grant 🟨
61'
81'
⚽ L. Dobbie
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elgin edge attack, Stranraer edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stranraer arrive with an encouraging recent record away from home, having secured three wins and just one defeat in their last five outings, while Elgin have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have also conceded in four of those same fixtures. Elgin's home scoring profile shows they have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue, though they have managed only one clean sheet during that identical recent sample. Stranraer rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Elgin rate stronger on attack, while defence is closely matched. Stranraer won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 2 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Elgin's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Elgin's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Stranraer's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
45%
Stranraer yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Stranraer
Stranraer's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stranraer win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. Elgin remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elgin win
Latest market chance 44.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
43.5% → 44.9%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 26.3%
+0.6 pts
Stranraer win
Latest market chance 28.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
30.8% → 28.8%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elgin
Draw
Stranraer
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElginStranraer
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.86
2.57
Goals/Game
1.71
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.8
Shots/Game
11.1
5.2
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Elgin at home (5 matches) vs Stranraer away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.75
3.20
Goals/Game
2.75
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.50
60%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elgin
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stranraer
Away form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Elgin Wins
2
Draws
1
Stranraer Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Elgin0 – 1Stranraer
Stranraer1 – 2Elgin
Elgin1 – 2Stranraer
Stranraer1 – 1Elgin
Elgin3 – 0Stranraer
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elginvs
Stranraer
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 53.8%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 57.4%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Elgin's 10 matches and 3 of Stranraer's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?