Spartans vs Kelty Hearts Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ainslie Park
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.64
Draw
3.96
Away Win
4.37
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Spartans
Kelty Hearts
J. Dishington 🟨
8'
18'
⚽ (OG) J. Dishington
45'
🟨 A. Ferguson
46'
⚽ J. Hislop (G. Walker)
B. Whyte 🟨
77'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Spartans edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Spartans slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Spartans stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Spartans slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Kelty Hearts have struggled away from home with just a solitary win in their last five outings, whereas Spartans remain unbeaten at home during that same period with four draws and a single victory. Spartans have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those fixtures, conceding goals in every instance. Spartans rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and defence. Over the 6-day comparison window, Spartans's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Kelty Hearts's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Spartans
Spartans's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Spartans win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Spartans win
Latest market chance 56.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
54.8% → 56.3%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.4% → 22.3%
−0.1 pts
Kelty Hearts win
Latest market chance 21.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
22.7% → 21.4%
−1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Spartans
Draw
Kelty Hearts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SpartansKelty Hearts
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
1.50
Points/Game
1.13
2.38
Goals/Game
1.38
1.88
Conceded/Game
2.25
11.0
Shots/Game
10.4
5.4
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Spartans at home (5 matches) vs Kelty Hearts away (5 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
0.60
2.60
Goals/Game
0.80
2.20
Conceded/Game
2.20
20%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Spartans
Home form
D
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Kelty Hearts
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Spartans and Kelty Hearts.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Spartansvs
Kelty Hearts
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.6%→Latest 60.7%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.6%→Latest 59.4%−3.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Spartans's 10 matches and 2 of Kelty Hearts's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?