Aberdeen vs St Johnstone Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Pittodrie Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.17
Draw
3.41
Away Win
3.36
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Aberdeen edge defence and head-to-head, St Johnstone edge attack, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
St Johnstone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Aberdeen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Aberdeen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Johnstone head into this Scottish Premiership clash with a difficult away run, having recorded just one draw and four defeats in their last five outings, while Aberdeen have secured two victories from the same number of home fixtures to build some momentum ahead of kickoff at 14:00. At home, Aberdeen have found the net in two of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical recent sample, suggesting a home side capable of both scoring and defending well as they prepare for this afternoon's fixture. St Johnstone hold a slight advantage in attack, while Aberdeen rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 15 March 2025, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 22-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Aberdeen losing run
1
St Johnstone points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Aberdeen
No current absences reported
St Johnstone
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 22 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aberdeen win
Latest market chance 43.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.4% → 43.3%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.4%
+0.1 pts
St Johnstone win
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.2%
−0.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
17 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aberdeen
Draw
St Johnstone
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aberdeen
St Johnstone
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
6th
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
1.14
1.00
Goals/Game
1.29
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.43
9.9
Shots/Game
10.6
2.6
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Aberdeen at home (3 matches) vs St Johnstone away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
0.33
0.67
Goals/Game
0.67
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aberdeen
Home form
W
L
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
St Johnstone
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aberdeen Wins
2
Draws
2
St Johnstone Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
2025-03-152024-2025
St Johnstone0 – 0Aberdeen
2024-12-072024-2025
Aberdeen1 – 1St Johnstone
2024-08-052024-2025
St Johnstone1 – 2Aberdeen
2024-05-042023-2024
Aberdeen1 – 0St Johnstone
2024-02-282023-2024
Aberdeen0 – 2St Johnstone
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aberdeen
vs
St Johnstone
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
72.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
48.9%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
28.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
54.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.9%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 22 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.0%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 22 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Aberdeen's 10 matches and 3 of St Johnstone's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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