Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Easter Road
Tue 15 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.51
Draw
4.69
Away Win
6.00
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
31'
🟨 Tyreece John-Jules
40'
⚽ George Stanger
78'
🟨 Djenairo Daniels
90+2'
🟥 Djenairo Daniels
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
23
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Goal
7
15
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
5
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Hibernian (3-1-4-2)
R. Sallinger
J. Kerr
J. Iredale
K. Megwa
J. Devaney
F. Passlack
J. Mulligan
C. Wright
A. Mayor
A. Šuto
T. Klidje
Kilmarnock (3-4-2-1)
M. Stryjek
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
E. Ring
T. Lowery
B. Rice
M. Schjønning-Larsen
T. John-Jules
G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
Player Ratings ?
Hibernian
R. SallingerG8.1
J. KerrD7.6
G. HanleyD7.6
Kilmarnock
M. StryjekG8.6
G. StangerD7.7
T. LoweryM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hibernian edge recent form and head-to-head, Kilmarnock edge attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hibernian slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kilmarnock slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hibernian stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kilmarnock have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Hibernian have suffered five straight defeats at home during that same span. Hibernian have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet across that period. Hibernian rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Kilmarnock hold a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. Hibernian won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 4 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Kilmarnock's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 16-day comparison window, Hibernian's implied win probability has risen by 5.4 percentage points, while Kilmarnock's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Kilmarnock losing run
0
Hibernian points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Hibernian
Hibernian's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hibernian win as more likely than it did 16 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hibernian win
Latest market chance 63.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
57.7% → 63.1%
+5.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.7% → 20.9%
−2.8 pts
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 16.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.6% → 16.0%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hibernian
Draw
Kilmarnock
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 16 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HibernianKilmarnock
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
12th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.20
1.40
Goals/Game
0.80
1.80
Conceded/Game
2.80
16.9
Shots/Game
9.9
4.4
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Hibernian at home (4 matches) vs Kilmarnock away (3 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.33
0.75
Goals/Game
1.33
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hibernian
Home form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Kilmarnock
Away form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hibernian Wins
3
Draws
2
Kilmarnock Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Hibernian3 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock1 – 3Hibernian
Hibernian2 – 2Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock1 – 1Hibernian
Hibernian1 – 0Kilmarnock
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hibernianvs
Kilmarnock
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.70
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 62.4%+9.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 58.0%+4.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Hibernian's 10 matches and 5 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?