Kilmarnock vs Hearts Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 17:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.93
Draw
4.33
Away Win
1.64
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Kilmarnock
Hearts
Cathal McCarthy 🟨
10'
Jamie McCart ⚽ (OG)
16'
63'
🟨 Stephen Kingsley
Michael Schjonning-Larsen 🟨
83'
86'
⚽ Stephen Kingsley
90'
🟨 Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
Match Statistics ?
33%
Ball Possession
67%
4
Total Shots
17
0
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Kilmarnock (4-4-2)
C. Ferrie
J. Brandon
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
M. Schjønning-Larsen
E. Ring
T. Lowery
B. Rice
G. Kiltie
T. John-Jules
J. Hugill
Hearts (4-4-2)
B. Reus
C. Borchgrevink
J. McCart
S. Findlay
S. Kingsley
C. Miller
L. Mendy
T. Magnússon
J. McPake
J. Wilson
Cláudio Braga
Player Ratings ?
Kilmarnock
G. StangerD6.9
R. McKenzieM6.8
J. BrandonD6.7
Hearts
S. KingsleyD7.8
Cláudio BragaF7.2
C. BorchgrevinkD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hearts edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hearts slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hearts slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hearts have recorded just one win and a draw from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Kilmarnock sit on two victories in that same span at home. At home, Kilmarnock have found the net in three of their last five matches but have managed only a single clean sheet within that identical sample. Hearts rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. Kilmarnock won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 14 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Hearts's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Kilmarnock's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Hearts unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Hearts
Hearts's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hearts win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 19.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.3% → 19.7%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.9% → 23.0%
−0.9 pts
Hearts win
Latest market chance 57.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
55.8% → 57.3%
+1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kilmarnock
Draw
Hearts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KilmarnockHearts
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
3rd
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
2.00
0.83
Goals/Game
2.17
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.17
9.9
Shots/Game
16.3
4.0
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Kilmarnock at home (4 matches) vs Hearts away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
2.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kilmarnock
Home form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hearts
Away form
D
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kilmarnock Wins
1
Draws
1
Hearts Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Kilmarnock1 – 0Hearts
Hearts1 – 1Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0 – 3Hearts
Kilmarnock0 – 1Hearts
Hearts3 – 2Kilmarnock
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kilmarnockvs
Hearts
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 61.2%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 59.1%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches and 4 of Hearts's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?