Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Head to Head, Prediction
Rugby Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.03
Draw
3.55
Away Win
2.18
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kilmarnock edge recent form, Motherwell edge attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Kilmarnock stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Motherwell slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 27 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 30.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.8% → 30.8%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.3%
±0.0 pts
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 42.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
42.9% → 42.9%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kilmarnock
Draw
Motherwell
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 27 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KilmarnockMotherwell
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
0.71
Points/Game
1.14
0.86
Goals/Game
1.29
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.57
9.9
Shots/Game
14.6
4.0
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Kilmarnock at home (4 matches) vs Motherwell away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
2.75
Conceded/Game
1.75
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kilmarnock
Home form
W
L
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Motherwell
Away form
W
W
D
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kilmarnock Wins
1
Draws
1
Motherwell Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Motherwell4 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock1 – 3Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 2Kilmarnock
Motherwell3 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock2 – 0Motherwell
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kilmarnockvs
Motherwell
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 54.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.0%→Latest 58.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches and 3 of Motherwell's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?