St Johnstone vs Falkirk Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
McDiarmid Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.06
Draw
3.58
Away Win
3.63
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
St Johnstone
Falkirk
Cheick Diabate 🟨
45'
Cheick Diabate 🟥
53'
60'
⚽ Ethan Ross (Owen Eames)
Ruari Paton 🟨
90'
Enes Alic 🟨
90+2'
Enes Alic ⚽
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
8
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
18
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
St Johnstone (4-2-3-1)
T. Steward
L. Smith
Z. Mitchell
C. Diabate
E. Alıç
R. McAlear
J. Holt
J. Campbell
J. Cotterill
T. Steven
J. Fowler
Falkirk (4-2-3-1)
S. Bain
R. Strain
D. Meļņiks
L. Henderson
L. McCann
Finley Frank Barbrook
B. Spencer
E. Ross
B. Krauhaus
Owen Eames
J. Murrell
Player Ratings ?
St Johnstone
J. FowlerF6.7
J. HoltM6.6
R. PatonF6.6
Falkirk
E. RossM8.2
R. StrainD7.5
S. BainG7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. St Johnstone edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Johnstone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Johnstone stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Johnstone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Johnstone stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Johnstone have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Falkirk remain winless in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. St Johnstone rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. Over the 12-day comparison window, St Johnstone's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points, while Falkirk's implied win probability has fallen by 4.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Falkirk
Falkirk's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Falkirk win as less likely than it did 12 days ago. St Johnstone remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Johnstone win
Latest market chance 45.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.8% → 45.9%
+4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 27.3%
+0.2 pts
Falkirk win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.1% → 26.7%
−4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St Johnstone
Draw
Falkirk
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St JohnstoneFalkirk
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
10th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
0.83
1.33
Goals/Game
0.83
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.33
10.6
Shots/Game
10.7
3.7
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
St Johnstone at home (4 matches) vs Falkirk away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.75
1.75
Goals/Game
0.75
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Johnstone
Home form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Falkirk
Away form
L
L
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Johnstone Wins
2
Draws
2
Falkirk Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Falkirk0 – 0St Johnstone
St Johnstone1 – 1Falkirk
Falkirk1 – 2St Johnstone
St Johnstone3 – 1Falkirk
Falkirk3 – 0St Johnstone
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Johnstonevs
Falkirk
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 50.5%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 54.6%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of St Johnstone's 10 matches and 4 of Falkirk's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?