Fiorentina vs Napoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 11:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.33
Draw
3.41
Away Win
2.27
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Fiorentina
Napoli
23'
⚽ B. Gilmour (M. Politano)
F. Mastantuono 🟨
42'
A. Jimenez (C. Ndour) ⚽
51'
L. Ranieri 🟨
62'
D. de Gea 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
17
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Fiorentina (4-3-3)
D. de Gea
A. Jimenez
R. Dragusin
L. Ranieri
Viery
C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
A. Atta
F. Mastantuono
M. Pellegrino
A. Njie
Napoli (4-2-3-1)
V. Milinkovic-Savic
G. Di Lorenzo
A. Rrahmani
R. Marin
M. Olivera
B. Gilmour
S. Lobotka
M. Politano
K. De Bruyne
N. Lang
R. Hojlund
Player Ratings ?
Fiorentina
David De GeaG8.3
Álex JiménezD8.3
Víctor ValdepeñasD7.5
Napoli
Billy GilmourM7.9
Vanja Milinković-SavićG7.3
Mathías OliveraD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Napoli
Napoli rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Napoli an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Napoli have managed two wins and two draws from their last five away outings, whereas Fiorentina have drawn three of their last five home matches with two defeats. Fiorentina have scored in just two of their last five home fixtures while keeping two clean sheets during that same period. The Viola face one confirmed absence and one doubt, while the Partenopei have seven players unavailable for selection. Napoli rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Napoli won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 31 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Fiorentina's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Fiorentina's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Napoli's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Napoli.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Fiorentina losing run
3
Fiorentina points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Fiorentina
Fiorentina's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fiorentina win as more likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Napoli remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 29.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.5% → 29.5%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.1% → 28.0%
−0.1 pts
Napoli win
Latest market chance 42.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
43.4% → 42.5%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Fiorentina
Draw
Napoli
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FiorentinaNapoli
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
10th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
1.50
1.25
Goals/Game
1.50
2.75
Conceded/Game
1.25
16.8
Shots/Game
13.8
5.6
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Fiorentina at home (3 matches) vs Napoli away (3 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
1.33
0.67
Goals/Game
1.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Fiorentina
Home form
D
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Napoli
Away form
D
D
W
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Fiorentina Wins
0
Draws
1
Napoli Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.4
Napoli2 – 1Fiorentina
Fiorentina1 – 3Napoli
Napoli2 – 1Fiorentina
Fiorentina0 – 3Napoli
Fiorentina2 – 2Napoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Fiorentinavs
Napoli
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 52.2%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 56.5%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Fiorentina's 10 matches and 6 of Napoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?