Lazio vs Milan Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.46
Draw
3.25
Away Win
2.29
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Lazio
Milan
M. Cancellieri (M. Zaccagni) ⚽
10'
T. Noslin ⚽
39'
59'
🟨 Christian Pulišić
Reda Belahyane 🟨
63'
64'
🟨 Strahinja Pavlović
65'
⚽ D. Moreira (C. Pulisic)
67'
⚽ D. Moreira (A. Rabiot)
Mattia Zaccagni 🟨
78'
86'
🟨 Mario Gila
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
8
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani
J. Sutalo
O. Provstgaard
N. Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
M. Cancellieri
T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Milan (3-4-2-1)
M. Maignan
M. Gila
K. De Winter
S. Pavlovic
S. Chukwueze
L. Modric
A. Rabiot
P. Estupinan
R. Loftus-Cheek
A. Cisse
G. Ramos
Player Ratings ?
Lazio
Tijjani NoslinF7.5
Mattia ZaccagniF7.5
Christos MandasG7.3
Milan
Diego MoreiraF9.0
Mike MaignanG7.5
Mario GilaD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lazio edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milan have secured three victories from their last five away outings, while Lazio have managed two wins in their corresponding home sample over the same span. Lazio have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, yet they have conceded in all but one of those same recent fixtures. Lazio rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. Lazio won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 15 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Milan's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 8 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lazio win
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.6% → 28.0%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.7% → 29.7%
±0.0 pts
Milan win
Latest market chance 42.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.7% → 42.3%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lazio
Draw
Milan
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LazioMilan
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
3
Games Played
3
3.00
Points/Game
2.33
1.33
Goals/Game
1.67
0.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
12.8
Shots/Game
12.8
3.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lazio at home (2 matches) vs Milan away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.67
1.50
Goals/Game
1.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lazio
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Milan
Away form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lazio Wins
2
Draws
1
Milan Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Lazio1 – 0Milan
Milan1 – 0Lazio
Milan1 – 2Lazio
Lazio2 – 2Milan
Lazio0 – 1Milan
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Laziovs
Milan
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 42.5%→Latest 41.6%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.1%→Latest 48.1%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Lazio's 10 matches and 7 of Milan's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?