Lecce vs Monza Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Via del Mare
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.03
Draw
3.02
Away Win
2.69
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Lecce
Monza
L. Coulibaly (I. Ilic) ⚽
3'
Tiago Gabriel (I. Ilic) ⚽
10'
20'
⚽ R. Mangas (S. Birindelli)
L. Coulibaly (D. Veiga) ⚽
21'
K. Ndri 🟨
38'
89'
⚽ E. Zeballos
D. Veiga 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
7
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Goal
11
4
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
8
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3)
Wladimiro Falcone
Danilo Veiga
Jamil Siebert
Tiago Gabriel
Antonino Gallo
Lassana Coulibaly
Ivan Ilić
Youssef Maleh
N'Dri Konan
Nikola Štulić
Joël Monteiro
Monza (3-4-2-1)
Demba Thiam
Eddy Kouadio
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Andrea Carboni
Samuele Birindelli
Michael Folorunsho
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas
Andrea Colpani
Jay Robinson
Gustavo Varela
Player Ratings ?
Lecce
Lassana CoulibalyM8.9
Wladimiro FalconeG7.9
Tiago GabrielD7.9
Monza
Michael FolorunshoM7.3
Ricardo MangasM7.3
Samuele BirindelliM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lecce
Lecce rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lecce an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lecce slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monza have secured just one victory and drawn another in their last five away outings, while Lecce have managed a solitary win and draw from their last five home matches. Lecce have found the net in only two of their last five home matches and kept a clean sheet merely once during that same period. Lecce face two confirmed absences ahead of kickoff, whereas Monza must contend with three certain unavailability issues alongside two players listed as doubtful. Lecce rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 16 February 2025, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 10.7 percentage points, while Monza's implied win probability has risen by 8.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lecce.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lecce
Lecce's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lecce win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Monza remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lecce win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
43.3% → 32.6%
−10.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.2% → 31.5%
+2.3 pts
Monza win
Latest market chance 35.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 35.9%
+8.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lecce
Draw
Monza
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LecceMonza
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
18th
3
Games Played
3
1.00
Points/Game
0.33
0.67
Goals/Game
1.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.67
8.4
Shots/Game
14.4
3.4
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lecce at home (2 matches) vs Monza away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.33
1.50
Goals/Game
1.33
3.00
Conceded/Game
2.67
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lecce
Home form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monza
Away form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lecce Wins
2
Draws
3
Monza Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
Monza0 – 0Lecce
Lecce2 – 1Monza
Lecce1 – 1Monza
Monza1 – 1Lecce
Monza0 – 1Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leccevs
Monza
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 42.3%→Latest 42.0%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.5%→Latest 49.4%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Lecce's 10 matches and 7 of Monza's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?