Milan vs Lecce Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.26
Draw
6.07
Away Win
11.69
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Milan
Lecce
C. Pulisic (S. Pavlovic) ⚽
14'
58'
🟨 D. Veiga
A. Rabiot (G. Ramos) ⚽
61'
D. Moreira ⚽
73'
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
10
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
1
4
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Milan (3-4-2-1)
M. Maignan
M. Gila
K. De Winter
S. Pavlovic
S. Chukwueze
L. Modric
A. Rabiot
P. Estupinan
C. Pulisic
A. Saelemaekers
G. Ramos
Lecce (4-3-3)
W. Falcone
D. Veiga
K. Gaspar
J. Siebert
A. Gallo
S. Pierotti
I. Ilic
Y. Maleh
L. Coulibaly
N. Stulic
J. Monteiro
Player Ratings ?
Milan
Christian PulišićF8.9
Strahinja PavlovićD8.2
Adrien RabiotM8.2
Lecce
Jamil SiebertD6.9
Ivan IlićM6.9
Amar FatahF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Milan edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Lecce edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lecce slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Milan slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Milan slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lecce have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and just one defeat in their last five outings, whereas Milan have struggled at home with only a single victory from the same number of matches. Milan have found the net in three of their last five home fixtures but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Lecce are missing three players from their matchday squad. Lecce hold a slight advantage in form, while Milan rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Milan won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 January 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Lecce's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Milan's implied win probability has risen by 5.1 percentage points, while Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Milan
Milan's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Milan win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Milan win
Latest market chance 75.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
70.7% → 75.8%
+5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
19.3% → 16.2%
−3.1 pts
Lecce win
Latest market chance 8.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
10.1% → 8.0%
−2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Milan
Draw
Lecce
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MilanLecce
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
12th
4
Games Played
4
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.75
Goals/Game
1.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.75
12.8
Shots/Game
8.4
4.2
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Milan at home (2 matches) vs Lecce away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.50
Goals/Game
0.67
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Milan
Home form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lecce
Away form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Milan Wins
5
Draws
0
Lecce Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Milan1 – 0Lecce
Lecce0 – 2Milan
Lecce2 – 3Milan
Milan3 – 0Lecce
Milan3 – 0Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Milanvs
Lecce
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 58.8%+5.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.1%→Latest 44.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Milan's 10 matches and 6 of Lecce's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?