Monza vs Sassuolo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fri 18 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.85
Draw
3.37
Away Win
2.59
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Monza
Sassuolo
E. Kouadio 🟨
30'
G. Varela (S. Birindelli) ⚽
51'
G. Varela ⚽ (P)
63'
M. Folorunsho 🟨
74'
85'
🟨 L. Lipani
S. Birindelli 🟨
85'
88'
⚽ V. Adzic
G. Varela 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
15
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Goal
8
7
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
6
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Offsides
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Monza (3-4-2-1)
Noel Törnqvist
Eddy Kouadio
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Andrea Carboni
Samuele Birindelli
Michael Folorunsho
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas
Patrick Cutrone
Jay Robinson
Gustavo Varela
Sassuolo (4-3-3)
Arijanet Murić
Simone Cinquegrano
Duje Ćaleta-Car
Fedde Leysen
Josh Doig
Kristian Thorstvedt
Nemanja Matić
Darryl Bakola
Domenico Berardi
Sebastiano Esposito
Armand Laurienté
Player Ratings ?
Monza
Gustavo VarelaF8.3
Noel TörnqvistG7.6
Eddy KouadioD7.3
Sassuolo
Armand LaurientéF7.9
Vasilije AdžićM7.9
Arijanet MurićG7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Monza edge head-to-head, Sassuolo edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sassuolo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Monza stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monza have lost their last five home matches, while Sassuolo remain winless in their last five away fixtures with two draws and three defeats. The hosts have scored in three of their last five outings but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sample. Sassuolo face the most significant selection issues with seven players out and one doubtful, whereas Monza have four unavailable names in their squad. Sassuolo rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Monza rate stronger on head-to-head. Monza won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 28 January 2024, having won 3 of the last 4 encounters to Sassuolo's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.75 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Monza's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Sassuolo's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/4
One-goal H2H results
0
Monza points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Monza
Monza's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Monza win as more likely than it did 11 days ago. Sassuolo remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monza win
Latest market chance 34.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
32.6% → 34.3%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.2%
−0.2 pts
Sassuolo win
Latest market chance 37.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.0% → 37.5%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monza
Draw
Sassuolo
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonzaSassuolo
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
9th
4
Games Played
4
0.25
Points/Game
1.75
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
2.75
Conceded/Game
1.75
14.4
Shots/Game
17.2
6.0
Shots on Target
7.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Monza at home (2 matches) vs Sassuolo away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monza
Home form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sassuolo
Away form
D
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monza Wins
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Monza1 – 0Sassuolo
Sassuolo0 – 1Monza
Sassuolo1 – 2Monza
Monza1 – 1Sassuolo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monzavs
Sassuolo
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.7%→Latest 54.8%+5.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.2%→Latest 59.8%+4.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Monza's 10 matches and 6 of Sassuolo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?