Napoli vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.51
Away Win
4.53
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Napoli
Bologna
31'
🟨 M. Amondarain
S. Lobotka (C. Favasuli) ⚽
66'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
15
Total Shots
5
3
Shots on Goal
2
10
Corner Kicks
0
15
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
2
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Napoli (4-2-3-1)
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Amir Rrahmani
Rafa Marín
Leonardo Spinazzola
Billy Gilmour
Stanislav Lobotka
Matteo Politano
Kevin De Bruyne
Antonio Vergara
Rasmus Højlund
Bologna (4-2-3-1)
Massimo Pessina
Emil Holm
Torbjørn Heggem
Arthur Theate
Juan Miranda
Lewis Ferguson
Tommaso Pobega
Federico Bernardeschi
Mikel Amondarain
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Roberto Piccoli
Player Ratings ?
Napoli
Stanislav LobotkaM8.6
Leonardo SpinazzolaD8.0
Kevin De BruyneM8.0
Bologna
Emil HolmD7.3
Lewis FergusonM7.3
Torbjørn HeggemD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Napoli edge recent form and attack, Bologna edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bologna slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Napoli face a Bologna side that has secured three victories from their last five away outings, while the visitors have managed just two wins in their corresponding home sample over the same span. At home, Napoli have found the net in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. There are seven players unavailable for Napoli and four missing from Bologna's squad ahead of this Serie A clash. Napoli rate stronger on form and attack, while Bologna rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Bologna won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 11 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Napoli's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Napoli's implied win probability has fallen by 7.0 percentage points, while Bologna's implied win probability has risen by 5.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Napoli
Napoli's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Napoli win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Napoli win
Latest market chance 52.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
59.1% → 52.1%
−7.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
24.8% → 26.5%
+1.7 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 21.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
16.2% → 21.4%
+5.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Napoli
Draw
Bologna
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NapoliBologna
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
16th
3
Games Played
3
1.00
Points/Game
0.33
1.67
Goals/Game
0.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
13.8
Shots/Game
13.4
4.2
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Napoli at home (2 matches) vs Bologna away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
0.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Napoli
Home form
L
W
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Napoli Wins
1
Draws
1
Bologna Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
Napoli2 – 3Bologna
Bologna2 – 0Napoli
Bologna1 – 1Napoli
Napoli3 – 0Bologna
Napoli0 – 2Bologna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Napolivs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.8%→Latest 49.3%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.5%→Latest 51.6%+5.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
7 of Napoli's 10 matches and 7 of Bologna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?