Roma vs Atalanta Head to Head, Prediction
Stadio Olimpico
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.74
Draw
3.91
Away Win
4.86
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Roma
Atalanta
47'
⚽ Ederson
84'
🟨 Raoul Bellanova
M. Hermoso (M. Soule) ⚽
89'
90+7'
🟥 Gianluca Gaetano
M. Soule (P. Dybala) ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
39
Total Shots
6
10
Shots on Goal
2
14
Corner Kicks
1
9
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
9
Starting Lineups
Roma (3-4-1-2)
M. Svilar
G. Mancini
E. Ndicka
M. Hermoso
E. Lulli
B. Cristante
M. Kone
Wesley Franca
R. Mora
P. Dybala
D. Malen
Atalanta (4-3-3)
M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova
O. Kossounou
G. Scalvini
S. Kolasinac
L. Samardzic
G. Gaetano
Ederson
C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca
E. Elmas
Player Ratings ?
Roma
Matías SouléF8.6
Mario HermosoD8.5
Paulo DybalaF8.3
Atalanta
Marco CarnesecchiG9.2
ÉdersonM7.5
Raoul BellanovaD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Roma edge recent form, attack and defence, Atalanta edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Roma
Roma's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Roma win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Roma win
Latest market chance 55.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
49.7% → 55.0%
+5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.2% → 25.0%
−2.2 pts
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 20.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.0% → 20.0%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Roma
Draw
Atalanta
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RomaAtalanta
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
6th
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Points/Game
3.00
4.00
Goals/Game
1.50
0.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
20.6
Shots/Game
11.8
7.0
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Roma at home (3 matches) vs Atalanta away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.00
2.67
Goals/Game
0.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Roma
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atalanta
Away form
W
D
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
5 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Roma Wins
0
Draws
1
Atalanta Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
Roma1 – 1Atalanta
Atalanta1 – 0Roma
Atalanta2 – 1Roma
Roma0 – 2Atalanta
Atalanta2 – 1Roma
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Romavs
Atalanta
Recent Scoring Profile
2.70
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.7%→Latest 50.3%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 51.6%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
8 of Roma's 10 matches and 8 of Atalanta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?