Ascoli vs Avellino Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 18:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.11
Draw
3.38
Away Win
3.71
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Ascoli
Avellino
11'
🟨 L. Di Maggio
17'
⚽ Raffaele Russo (Martin Palumbo)
Nicholas Rizzo 🟨
45+2'
Patrick Enrici ⚽ (OG)
49'
Giovanni Corradini 🟨
60'
Andrea·Silipo (Tommaso Milanese) ⚽
72'
79'
🟨 Michele Besaggio
Andrea·Silipo (Gabriele Gori) ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
15
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
3
5
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Ascoli (3-5-2)
S. Vitale
T. Milanese
M. Curado
N. Rizzo
A. Silipo
G. Corradini
S. Damiani
D. Bolsius
A. Guiébré
Matteo Brunori
S. D'Uffizi
Avellino (3-5-2)
T. Martinelli
A. Izzo
M. Venturi
P. Enrici
F. Missori
L. Di Maggio
M. Palumbo
M. Besaggio
B. Moruzzi
W. Cheddira
R. Russo
Player Ratings ?
Ascoli
A. SilipoM9.6
M. CuradoD7.4
G. GoriF7.0
Avellino
R. RussoF8.2
M. PalumboM6.6
T. MartinelliG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ascoli edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ascoli have secured two wins and two draws from their last five home fixtures, while Avellino's away record over the same span shows just two victories against three defeats. At home, Ascoli have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Ascoli rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form and attack are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. The market has remained broadly steady over the 1-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 1 day before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 44.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.1% → 44.9%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 28.4%
+0.5 pts
Avellino win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 26.7%
−0.3 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AscoliAvellino
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
4th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
1.75
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
0.75
Conceded/Game
0.75
15.4
Shots/Game
10.8
4.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Ascoli at home (3 matches) vs Avellino away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.50
1.67
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ascoli
Home form
D
L
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Avellino
Away form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ascoli Wins
2
Draws
2
Avellino Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Ascoli1 – 1Avellino
Avellino1 – 1Ascoli
Ascoli2 – 0Avellino
Avellino1 – 2Ascoli
Ascoli3 – 4Avellino
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ascolivs
Avellino
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded / game
0.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.6%→Latest 49.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 54.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Ascoli's 10 matches and 6 of Avellino's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?