Empoli vs Arezzo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.10
Draw
3.31
Away Win
3.91
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Empoli
Arezzo
Edoardo Biondini 🟨
18'
Marco Curto 🟥
45'
74'
⚽ (OG) Simone Romagnoli
89'
🟨 matteo gilli
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
10
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
4
16
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
L. Magnino
M. Curto
C. Cauz
M. Egan
E. Biondini
Gerard Yepes
E. Saporiti
N. Corrado
S. Shpendi
J. Ceesay
Arezzo (4-3-3)
A. Nunziante
A. Renzi
M. Gilli
M. Coppolaro
S. Righetti
A. Ioniţă
M. Viviani
S. Mawuli
A. Arena
P. Cianci
M. Olivieri
Player Ratings ?
Empoli
L. MagninoD7.0
E. SaporitiM7.0
S. RomagnoliD6.8
Arezzo
M. CoppolaroD8.0
S. RighettiD7.5
A. RenziD7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Arezzo edge recent form, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arezzo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Empoli head into this Serie B clash with an impressive unbeaten run from their last five home outings, while Arezzo have secured four victories in their corresponding away fixtures over the same period. At San Siro, Empoli have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have managed to keep a clean sheet just twice during that same sequence. Arezzo rate stronger on form, while head-to-head is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2005. Over the 4-day comparison window, Empoli's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Arezzo's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Empoli
Empoli's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Empoli win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Empoli win
Latest market chance 45.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
49.1% → 45.1%
−4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.4% → 30.2%
+1.8 pts
Arezzo win
Latest market chance 24.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.4% → 24.7%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Empoli
Draw
Arezzo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EmpoliArezzo
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
15th
3
Games Played
3
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
10.2
Shots/Game
12.4
3.0
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Empoli at home (2 matches) vs Arezzo away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Empoli
Home form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arezzo
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Empoli Wins
0
Draws
2
Arezzo Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Empoli1 – 1Arezzo
Arezzo1 – 1Empoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Empolivs
Arezzo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.1%→Latest 43.7%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.0%→Latest 49.1%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Empoli's 10 matches and 7 of Arezzo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?