Empoli vs Palermo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Stadio Carlo Castellani
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.75
Draw
3.54
Away Win
1.99
Match Prediction
Data favours
Palermo
Palermo rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Empoli edge defence, giving Palermo a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Empoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Empoli have secured three wins from their last five outings at home, while Palermo have managed just a solitary victory in five away matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures and kept two clean sheets during that same period. Palermo rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Empoli hold a slight advantage in defence. Palermo won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 7 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Empoli's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Palermo a slight edge.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Empoli win
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.1%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.5%
±0.0 pts
Palermo win
Latest market chance 48.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
48.4% → 48.4%
±0.0 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Empoli
Palermo
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
2.60
0.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.2
Shots/Game
15.6
3.0
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Empoli at home (2 matches) vs Palermo away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
0.50
Goals/Game
2.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Empoli
Home form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Palermo
Away form
D
L
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Empoli Wins
1
Draws
1
Palermo Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.4
2026-02-072025-2026
Palermo3 – 2Empoli
2025-12-072025-2026
Empoli1 – 3Palermo
2018-02-022017-2018
Empoli4 – 0Palermo
2017-09-092017-2018
Palermo3 – 3Empoli
2017-05-282016-2017
Palermo2 – 1Empoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Empoli
vs
Palermo
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
76.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
55.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 55.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 58.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Empoli's 10 matches and 5 of Palermo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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