Mantova vs Sampdoria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.29
Draw
3.18
Away Win
3.55
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Mantova
Sampdoria
Fahem Benaissa Yahia 🟨
16'
28'
🟨 Lorenzo Insigne
Francesco Modesto 🟨
43'
44'
🟨 Liam Henderson
Francesco Ruocco (Alessio Castellini) ⚽
58'
64'
• Tobias Lauritsen
Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo (Rares Ilie) ⚽
66'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
10
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Mantova (3-4-2-1)
F. Bardi
B. Tomašević
S. Cella
A. Castellini
Jonathan Silva
L. Ignacchiti
R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
R. Ilie
F. Ruocco
E. Gliozzi
Sampdoria (4-2-3-1)
P. Vindahl
A. Di Pardo
S. Gartenmann
F. Delli Carri
M. Cicconi
L. Henderson
A. Makoumbou
T. Begić
Y. Verschaeren
L. Insigne
G. Tutino
Player Ratings ?
Mantova
F. RuoccoM8.2
A. CastelliniD7.9
R. IlieM7.7
Sampdoria
F. Delli CarriD6.9
Yann KaramohNone6.7
T. LauritsenF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mantova edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Sampdoria edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mantova stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mantova stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sampdoria slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Mantova stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mantova have enjoyed a strong run at home with four wins from their last five outings, whereas Sampdoria have struggled away from home with just a solitary win in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Mantova rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Sampdoria hold a slight advantage in defence. Mantova won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Sampdoria's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.25 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Mantova's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Sampdoria's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/4
One-goal H2H results
12
Mantova points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Mantova remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mantova win
Latest market chance 41.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
40.9% → 41.8%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.5% → 30.3%
−1.2 pts
Sampdoria win
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.9%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mantova
Draw
Sampdoria
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MantovaSampdoria
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
19th
3
Games Played
3
2.33
Points/Game
0.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
12.0
Shots/Game
16.4
5.0
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Mantova at home (3 matches) vs Sampdoria away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.33
2.33
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mantova
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sampdoria
Away form
W
D
L
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mantova Wins
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Mantova2 – 1Sampdoria
Sampdoria0 – 1Mantova
Mantova2 – 2Sampdoria
Sampdoria1 – 0Mantova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mantovavs
Sampdoria
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 40.8%→Latest 46.9%+6.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 52.8%+5.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of Mantova's 10 matches and 7 of Sampdoria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?