Modena vs Empoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alberto Braglia
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 18:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.67
Draw
3.79
Away Win
5.74
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Modena
Empoli
20'
🟨 Luca Magnino
27'
⚽ Gerard Yepes
Giacomo Olzer 🟨
47'
Andrea Belotti (Daniel Tonoli) ⚽
61'
Alessandro Bianco 🟨
66'
Giuseppe Ambrosino (Alessandro Bianco) ⚽
70'
82'
🟨 Cristian Cauz
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
22
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
6
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Modena (3-5-2)
L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
S. Nador
B. Nieling
Paulo Azzi
A. Bianco
G. Brugman
G. Caso
F. Zampano
G. Olzer
G. Ambrosino
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
L. Magnino
S. Romagnoli
C. Cauz
N. Corrado
K. Zedadka
Gerard Yepes
E. Biondini
J. Ceesay
E. Saporiti
S. Shpendi
Player Ratings ?
Modena
G. AmbrosinoF8.2
A. BelottiF8.1
A. BiancoM7.7
Empoli
J. SeghettiG7.9
Gerard YepesM7.7
S. RomagnoliD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Modena edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Empoli have secured just one win and recorded a single draw from their last five away outings, while Modena have managed two victories in their recent home fixtures before suffering three defeats each. Modena have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period, conceding goals in every game at this venue. Modena rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 31 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Modena's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Empoli's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Modena
Modena's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as more likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Modena win
Latest market chance 57.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
56.2% → 57.1%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.3%
±0.0 pts
Empoli win
Latest market chance 17.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.4% → 17.6%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Modena
Draw
Empoli
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ModenaEmpoli
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
1.50
1.50
Goals/Game
0.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
21.2
Shots/Game
10.2
6.6
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Modena at home (2 matches) vs Empoli away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Modena
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Empoli
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Modena Wins
1
Draws
2
Empoli Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Empoli0 – 0Modena
Modena2 – 1Empoli
Modena0 – 0Empoli
Empoli2 – 1Modena
Modena2 – 3Empoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Modenavs
Empoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.4%→Latest 50.0%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.8%→Latest 50.5%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Modena's 10 matches and 6 of Empoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?