Palermo vs Padova Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Renzo Barbera
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.53
Draw
4.42
Away Win
6.09
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Palermo
Padova
7'
⚽ Christian Pastina (Matteo Cocchi)
Niccolo Pierozzi 🟨
42'
Dominic Vavassori (Dennis Johnsen) ⚽
44'
61'
🟨 Matteo Cocchi
Filippo·Ranocchia 🟨
66'
Dominic Vavassori (Dennis Johnsen) ⚽
83'
90+1'
🟥 Lorenzo Carissoni
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
22
Total Shots
20
8
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
11
10
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
5
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
M. Fortin
N. Pierozzi
M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
D. Vavassori
A. Palumbo
D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
Alessandro Dellavalle
M. Lovato
C. Pastina
A. Capelli
G. Giunti
E. Zuelli
P. Fusi
M. Cocchi
A. Seghetti
L. Moro
Player Ratings ?
Palermo
D. VavassoriM8.9
D. JohnsenM8.5
F. RanocchiaM7.2
Padova
C. PastinaD7.4
A. SorrentinoG7.1
E. ZuelliM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Palermo
Palermo rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Palermo a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Palermo arrives at home with a perfect record in their last five outings, while Padova have secured just two victories from the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five home matches, though they have also kept three clean sheets during that identical run. Palermo rate stronger on attack, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form. Palermo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Padova's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 1-day comparison window, Palermo's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Padova's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Palermo a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
15
Palermo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Palermo
Palermo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Palermo win as more likely than it did 1 day ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Palermo win
Latest market chance 61.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
59.6% → 61.4%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.0% → 22.8%
−0.2 pts
Padova win
Latest market chance 15.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
17.5% → 15.9%
−1.6 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PalermoPadova
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
8th
4
Games Played
4
2.50
Points/Game
1.75
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.6
Shots/Game
12.2
5.6
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Palermo at home (3 matches) vs Padova away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Palermo
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Padova
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Palermo Wins
4
Draws
1
Padova Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Padova0 – 1Palermo
Palermo1 – 0Padova
Palermo1 – 1Padova
Padova1 – 3Palermo
Palermo1 – 0Padova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Palermovs
Padova
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 56.3%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 53.3%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Palermo's 10 matches and 6 of Padova's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?