Sudtirol vs Ascoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.49
Draw
3.04
Away Win
3.14
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sudtirol edge head-to-head, Ascoli edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sudtirol stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ascoli have secured two victories in their last five away outings, while Sudtirol remain unbeaten at home with three draws and two wins from the same number of fixtures. Sudtirol have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical run, highlighting a contrasting approach to attack versus defence at this venue. Ascoli rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Sudtirol rate stronger on head-to-head. Sudtirol won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 February 2024, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Ascoli's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sudtirol win
Latest market chance 38.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.4% → 38.4%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.6% → 30.6%
±0.0 pts
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 31.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.1% → 31.1%
±0.0 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SudtirolAscoli
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
2.20
Points/Game
2.00
1.80
Goals/Game
1.40
0.60
Conceded/Game
0.80
9.4
Shots/Game
15.4
3.2
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Sudtirol at home (3 matches) vs Ascoli away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.50
1.33
Goals/Game
1.00
0.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sudtirol
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ascoli
Away form
D
W
D
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sudtirol Wins
2
Draws
1
Ascoli Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Ascoli1 – 2Sudtirol
Sudtirol3 – 1Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 0Sudtirol
Sudtirol2 – 2Ascoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sudtirolvs
Ascoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 48.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Sudtirol's 10 matches and 5 of Ascoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?